Australia’s migration intake is continuing at record levels, compounding pressures on housing supply and affordability, with the latest figures showing arrivals far exceeding government forecasts.
According to new Australian Bureau of Statistics data, net permanent and long-term arrivals for the year-to-June 2025 reached 279,460, the highest figure on record, surpassing the 2024 peak.
For the 2024–25 financial year, net permanent and long-term arrivals totalled 457,560, just shy of 2023–24’s record 469,140. This figure exceeded the federal budget forecast for net overseas migration of 335,000 by 122,560, or 37 per cent.
Housing demand outstripping supply
Daniel Wild, Deputy Executive Director of the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA), said the figures underline a growing mismatch between population growth and housing supply.
“Excessive migration has pummelled Australia’s economic productivity, which led to an extended period of negative per capita economic growth. It is also exacerbating a housing crisis that is being experienced by Australians and new migrants alike,” Mr Wild said.
Net overseas migration has accounted for around 80 per cent of Australia’s population growth since the pandemic, with Australia’s population growing 43 per cent since 2000 – outpacing New Zealand (+38 per cent), Canada (+35 per cent), the United States (+21 per cent) and the United Kingdom (+18 per cent).
Targets now “aspirations”
The release of the data comes just a week after the federal housing minister downgraded the National Housing Accord from a firm target to a “national aspiration”, effectively conceding that the goal of building 1.2 million new homes between 2024 and 2029 will not be met.
Mr Wild said this change in stance presents a challenge for market stability.
“The federal government has not taken its foot off the migration accelerator, while at the same time acknowledging they will not be able to build the houses needed to accommodate a rising population,” he said.
“Australia is a welcoming society, but the nation’s migration program must be properly planned, have the consent of the community, and not strain critical social infrastructure.”
For real estate businesses, the ongoing population growth is likely to fuel continued demand in both the sales and rental markets, particularly in capital cities and high-growth regions.
While this may support transaction volumes, it also points to intensified competition for stock, rising rents, and affordability concerns; conditions that may drive further investor interest but also heighten policy and regulatory focus on housing supply.
