New Zealand property values flat as market uncertainty persists

The modest monthly decline mirrors the -0.2% annual change, bringing the national median property value to $819,921.

“At the end of 2024, our analysis suggested that 2025 was likely to be a ‘year of conflicting forces’ in the property market,” said Cotality Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson. “That broad theme has proven correct.”

While falling mortgage rates have provided some support, Mr Davidson said the market remains subdued due to factors such as elevated listing volumes and a weak labour market.

“The jobs market uncertainty is surely a key limiting factor at present.”

Among the main centres, Auckland and Dunedin were the weakest performers in July, both recording -0.6% monthly declines.

Wellington dropped by -0.2%, while Christchurch saw a minor -0.1% fall. Hamilton and Tauranga bucked the trend, up +0.4% and +0.9% respectively, though Tauranga’s annual growth remains modest at +0.8%.

Despite soft prices, Mr Davidson noted a slight tightening in supply.

“Rising sales activity has now started to erode the stock of available listings a touch,” he said, suggesting that could create some upward price pressure later in the year – particularly as more borrowers roll off higher-rate loans.

Regional markets showed slightly more resilience.

“There was a little more strength in provincial areas, possibly reflecting NZ’s ongoing two-speed economy,” said Mr Davidson, with New Plymouth, Hastings, and Whangārei all recording gains of at least +0.5%.

Looking ahead, Cotality expects sales volumes to continue recovering gradually but remains cautious about price growth.

“Market activity levels aren’t racing away and both buyers and sellers seemingly remain in a measured mood,” he said.

A potential rate cut on 20 August could offer support, but he warned: “The market may struggle to generate much more than a 1–2% rise in 2025.”