The Gold Coast has been officially labelled Australia’s most overstretched city, with rapid population growth pushing it well beyond its sustainable size, and the challenges are set to deepen after the Queensland government scrapped the planned extension of the city’s light rail network.
A major study by Monash University’s Institute of Transport Studies assessed 655 Australian cities to determine the “magic number” of residents where housing, jobs, transport and services operate in balance.
Researchers found sustainability and liveability peak when a city’s population sits within four per cent of its ideal size.
The Gold Coast topped the list of overstretched cities, operating around 14 per cent above its capacity.
It was followed by the NSW Central Coast (13 per cent) and Murray Bridge in South Australia (12 per cent).
Melbourne, Sydney and the Sunshine Coast were also found to be over capacity, while Perth and the small regional centre of Port Pirie were considered close to their “just right” size.
The results show cities within the four per cent margin saved renters an average of $1560 a year, or $5.3 billion nationally, while 44,000 more people could walk to work daily and 275,000 households could cut back on car use.
Lead author Associate Professor Liton Kamruzzaman said the study demonstrated the risks of unchecked growth.
“When a city grows too big, the signs are clear; longer commutes, traffic jams, soaring rents, and overcrowded services,” he said in the Monash University report.
“But when it’s too small, valuable infrastructure and opportunities go to waste. It’s not about being large or small. It’s about whether a city’s population matches what its systems can handle. That’s the key to sustainability.”
Housing crunch intensifies
The Gold Coast’s challenges are already reflected in its housing market.
According to PropTrack’s Home Price Index, the city’s median home price surged almost 9 per cent in the past year to $1.08 million, making it one of the fastest-growing regions in the country.
And for renters, conditions remain dire. Anglicare Southern Queensland’s 2025 Rental Affordability Snapshot showed “close to zero” affordable rental options for low-income earners, making the Gold Coast the state’s least affordable market.
“The lack of safe, affordable and appropriate housing is not just a housing issue – it’s a community issue,” Anglicare CEO Sue Cooke said in the report.
Light rail Stage 4 scrapped
Despite mounting pressure on infrastructure, the Queensland government has confirmed it will scrap Stage 4 of the Gold Coast light rail project, which was to extend services from Burleigh Heads to Coolangatta, linking the network with the airport.
Cost estimates had ballooned to as much as $10 billion, sparking community backlash over disruption and budget blowouts.
The decision has left the southern Gold Coast – including growth hotspots like Tugun, Bilinga and Coolangatta — without a clear transport plan to support future development.
Gold Coast Mayor Tom Tate criticised the move, arguing buses would not be sufficient to carry the city through to the 2032 Olympic Games.
“Light rail remains the most effective way to cut congestion and move people around the city,” Mr Tate told The Courier-Mail, while also pointing to heavy rail to the airport as a possible alternative.
Finally, The Monash study recommends solutions such as stronger transport links, decentralised job hubs, and fairer land-use planning to recalibrate cities that are operating beyond their ideal size.
For the Gold Coast, the findings underline the tension between booming population growth, rising property demand, and infrastructure falling short.
