Australia’s senior living sector is attracting rising investor interest and generating close to $3 billion in annual transactions, according to new CBRE research that points to significant room for consolidation.
CBRE’s 2026 Australian Senior Living report covers aged care, retirement villages and land lease communities – a sector spanning approximately 480,000 units that the firm describes as one of Australia’s most under-institutionalised real estate classes.
Transaction volumes have grown strongly since 2021 to represent 5-10% of Australia’s annual commercial real estate deals, the report found.
Marcello Caspani-Muto, Director of CBRE Australian Healthcare & Social Infrastructure, said regulatory clarity from the Aged Care Act and retirement village reforms had helped strengthen investor confidence.
“We’ve moved from a sector that traded episodically to one with a much deeper and more active transaction market. Greater regulatory clarity has helped strengthen investor confidence, and we’re seeing private equity and institutional funds actively compete for senior living portfolios,” Marcello said.
Ownership remains highly dispersed. The report found the top five operators account for just 17% of retirement villages and around 20% of aged care, while land lease communities are the only segment showing meaningful concentration, at 55% of developed stock.
Sameer Chopra, CBRE’s Head of Pacific Research, said the numbers pointed to a clear opportunity.
“When the five largest players in a $150 billion sector control less than a fifth of the market, you’re looking at one of the clearest consolidation runways in Australian real estate,” Sameer said.
“Institutional ownership is low, scale advantages in care delivery and development are real, and we expect the next phase of the market to be defined by larger, cross-segment operators emerging through M&A rather than purely through greenfield development.”
The report also points to a widening gap between demand and supply. Australia’s population aged 65 and over is projected to grow from 4.75 million today to nearly 7.0 million by 2040, a 2.4% annual increase.
New senior living stock, by contrast, has been growing at just 1.0% to 1.7% per annum.
In aged care specifically, supply has expanded by only 0.7% per annum – around 1,500 places – since 2020, against forecast demand growth of 4% per annum in line with the 85-plus cohort.
“Current capex levels and construction cost growth mean we don’t see that supply rate improving over the medium term. Home care has taken some pressure off, but it doesn’t close a gap of this magnitude,” Marcello said.
Sameer said the financial position of incoming retirees would continue to support demand for higher-quality options.
“Some 83% of over-75s own their home outright, average dwelling values sit around $1.1 million, and a typical over-65 couple is likely to hold $750,000 in superannuation. That’s a cohort with the means to pay for quality and amenity – and their expectations will keep rising.”