Australia’s capital cities are collectively losing almost 23 affordable homes every day, according to new analysis by Ray White Group Chief Economist Nerida Conisbee.
The study, which examined all properties sold for under $750,000 across the nation’s nine capitals between 2015 and 2025, found that while the unit market is adding 1.5 affordable properties daily, it falls far short of offsetting house losses, creating a net reduction of 22.9 affordable homes per day.
“Australian capital cities are now collectively losing 24 affordable houses every single day,” Ms Conisbee said.
“While the unit market is adding 1.5 affordable properties daily, this growth falls far short of offsetting house losses – creating a net reduction of nearly 23 affordable homes daily.”
Sydney leads the decline, shedding 7.1 affordable properties daily, followed by Brisbane at 5.0 and Melbourne at 3.6.
Even smaller markets are seeing notable reductions, with the Gold Coast losing 2.5 properties a day, Adelaide 2.1, and Canberra and Hobart each around 0.7 per day.
Darwin is the only capital showing growth, gaining 0.3 affordable properties daily.
Affordable houses disappearing fastest
When looking specifically at houses, the figures are starker.
Sydney loses 5.8 affordable houses per day, equivalent to one house vanishing from the affordable market every four hours.
Brisbane follows at 5.5 per day, and Melbourne 5.1.
Between 2015 and 2025, Sydney’s affordable house stock collapsed from 24,009 to just 2,674, an 89 per cent decline.
The Gold Coast has recorded a 94 per cent drop, and Canberra also sits at an 89 per cent decline.
Perth loses 2.7 affordable houses daily, while Adelaide, long considered an affordable market, now sheds 2.2 per day.
Smaller markets are also feeling the pinch. The Gold Coast loses 1.7 houses daily, Canberra 0.9, and Hobart 0.5. Darwin again bucks the trend, gaining 0.2 affordable houses per day.
“At current trajectories, Sydney’s mathematical path leads to zero affordable houses by 2027,” Ms Conisbee said.
“While Brisbane and Melbourne retain larger affordable stocks, their rapid daily losses signal similar endpoint scenarios within the decade.”
What’s driving the decline
Ms Conisbee attributes the crisis to a mix of economic and policy pressures.
“Rising construction costs, which peaked at 17.8 per cent annually in 2022, have pushed new housing in many cities beyond affordable thresholds,” she said.
“Chronic undersupply means demand continues outstripping available stock, while government first-home buyer assistance schemes paradoxically inflate prices by increasing buyer purchasing power without addressing supply constraints.”
Unit gains not enough to fill the gap
Ideally, affordable units could offset the reduction in affordable houses, and the number of units priced under $750,000 has increased sharply in some capitals.
Perth recorded 105 per cent growth in affordable unit sales, while Darwin saw 71 per cent growth.
Nationally, however, affordable unit gains make up only 6 per cent of house losses.
Even cities with unit growth, such as Melbourne (+1.5 units daily) and Perth (+1.1 units daily), still fall well short of replacing their lost houses — 5.1 and 2.7 per day respectively.
“The increase is clearly not enough to offset the drop in houses,” Ms Conisbee said.
“Australia is losing nearly 23 affordable homes daily with minimal replacement stock filling the void.”
