According to recent data from Redfin, there are approximately 1.9 million home sellers in the US housing market compared to just 1.5 million homebuyers, creating a 33.7 per cent surplus of sellers.
This represents the most significant imbalance in records dating back to 2013.
The shift is expected to drive home prices down by approximately 1 per cent by the end of the year as sellers compete for a diminishing pool of buyers, giving purchasers increased negotiating power.
High mortgage rates and elevated home prices remain the primary factors deterring potential buyers.
Despite the median home sale price growing at its slowest pace in nearly two years (1.6 per cent year-over-year to $431,931 in April), monthly housing payments hit record highs as mortgage rates hover around 6.73 per cent.
Economic uncertainty, including tariff concerns and layoffs, has further dampened homebuyer enthusiasm.
A recent Redfin survey found that nearly one in four Americans cancel plans for major purchases due to tariff worries.
Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan said many sellers haven’t yet adjusted to the reality of the new market.
“The balance of power in the U.S. housing market has shifted toward buyers, but a lot of sellers have yet to see or accept the writing on the wall,” Mr Khan said.
“Many are still holding out hope that their home is the exception and will fetch top dollar.”
The data shows that 44 per cent of home listings in April had been on the market for 60 days or longer, the highest April share since 2020.
This is due to sellers overpricing their homes based on outdated comparables from the recent seller’s market.
The condo market is experiencing an even more pronounced difference, with 83.5 per cent more condo sellers than buyers nationwide.
By comparison, there are 27.8 per cent more single-family home sellers than buyers.
Geographically, 31 of the 50 most populous metros are now buyer’s markets, with Florida and Texas markets showing particular weakness.
Miami is the strongest buyer’s market, where sellers outnumber buyers by nearly 3 to 1.
Tim Harper, a real estate agent in Daytona Beach, Florida, has observed significant changes in favour of buyers.
“It has absolutely shifted to a buyer’s market, which means house hunters have a lot more options and room to negotiate,” Mr Harper said.
“It’s not uncommon for a buyer to get a home for 5 per cent less than the list price and $10,000 in seller concessions.
“That’s why it’s important for sellers to make sure their home is in tip-top shape.”
Only seven major metropolitan areas remain seller’s markets, with Newark, New Jersey, showing the strongest advantage for sellers, with 47.1 per cent fewer sellers than buyers.
This imbalance helped Newark’s home prices rise 12.2 per cent year over year, the largest gain among the top 50 metros.
Mr Khan said that different markets achieve balance through various mechanisms.
“In Cincinnati, homebuyer demand is stronger than the national average, perhaps due to the relatively low cost of housing,” he said.
“At the same time, listings are rising, mirroring the national trend. Together, these forces are creating a balanced market.”
