In a slowing or normalising real estate climate, the divide between agents who secure listings through price inflation and those who secure them through process is widening rapidly. As transaction volumes tighten across Victoria, the playbook that worked in the boom years is not just failing, it is actively damaging agency balance sheets and long-term reputations.
For Matthew Makin, managing director of Woodards Sunbury and Macedon Ranges, navigating today’s market conditions requires dropping the high-pressure sales pitches and leaning entirely into transparent, process-driven advice.
The high cost of overpromising in today’s market
When agents overpromise on price simply to secure a board on the lawn, they inadvertently destroy the property’s best chance of success.
“The golden rule in real estate is the longer a property has been on the market, the less buyers expect to pay,” Matthew says.
“If an agent has overpromised to win, they are going to go on at a higher price. Unless it sells quickly, they are going to have to go through a series of price reductions, pay for more marketing, and then the timeline expands.
“You end up selling outside the hot zone, which normally means a lower end price and less competition.”
This dynamic is further complicated by shifting buyer psychology, where hesitation has replaced the fear of missing out.
“Where we have found the biggest challenge in our market is that if it is overpriced or the wrong plan has been set up, the actual buyers have a real fear of overpaying,” he says.
“There are good sales out there, but it is done through competitive bidding. You need to get the best buyers to that home in a short amount of time and let them compete. Buyers do not want to bid if no one else is trying to have a go, but they are happy to bid to win.”
When a home sits stagnant, the operational toll on an agency builds also behind the scenes and agents burn energy on stale listings, vendor relationships sour, and consumers easily spot the pattern online.
“If a company is overpricing or you can clearly see a bold plan just to get market share in terms of listings online rather than sales, consumers are more aware than ever,” he says.
“There is so much detail online now to find out what agencies do. What potential sellers need to factor in is an agency’s process to sell homes, not just how much they promise on the day.”
With broader market pressures looming, agents are facing a much tighter volume environment where strategy will dictate survival.
“Statistically, it is looking like there is going to be upwards of 10 to 20 per cent less sales in the next financial year in our markets,” Matthew warns.
“So there is going to be a very tight squeeze for properties to sell.
“Rather than overpromise and underdeliver, we are talking about doubling our rate of service and increasing our knowledge so that when we are in front of clients, we are giving them the very best and up to date numbers and ways to sell in a timely manner.”
Instead of hunting for quick wins or trying to buy listings with inflated figures, Matthew believes the conversation at the kitchen table must shift back to strategy and client reality.
“As a business, we have stepped away from price and promising what we can get,” he says.
“We focus purely on a process to get the highest price possible, and then really understand the seller’s situation. In a changing market, where they might be buying might have dropped the same or more than where they are selling, so it is important the seller focuses on a changeover cost as opposed to just looking at what they are selling for.”
Part of that process involves counteracting negative media headlines with real-time ground truths.
“There are a few misnomers where people are sitting at home watching the news thinking it is really bad,” he says.
“The RBA and the news report on settled sales data, which reflects where the market was three, four, or five months ago when it was really hard. We are actually seeing some pretty good results lately and it is about educating owners when there are good sales to show them, because there is always a right time to sell. It is an agent’s ability to find the right buyer at the right time.”
As old listings sour across the state, Matthew anticipates vendors will soon lose patience with agents who rely on hype over execution.
“In the next couple of months, there are going to be a lot of properties that have been on the market since summer, and they will be looking at changing agents,” he says.
“If you have done the right thing, the owner will probably stick by you. But if you have not run it properly, a lot of people will swap to someone who is more proactive and has a plan as opposed to a promise.”
For real estate professionals looking to build a sustainable career through fluctuating cycles, Matthew believes the current market presents a masterclass for genuine practitioners.
“Anyone that is a slick salesman with no substance or anyone that wants a quick win is going to get burnt out in this market.
“The ones that actually love it as a vocation learn, and experience will shine through. Industry wise, just look for the wins for the client, no not look for the wins just to make money. Look through the client’s lens, and help get them safely to their next move.”