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RBA rate cut set to fuel spring property market confidence

The Reserve Bankโ€™s third cut this year is poised to lift market sentiment ahead of the busiest selling season, but experts warn that affordability challenges remain.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has delivered a widely anticipated 25 basis point cut to the official cash rate, bringing it down to 3.6 per cent in a unanimous board decision.

With underlying inflation continuing to track back towards the midpoint of the RBAโ€™s 2โ€“3 per cent target range and labour market conditions easing, the central bank judged that further monetary easing was warranted.

However, the board signalled it remained cautious given uncertainty around aggregate demand and supply, noting that monetary policy was well-placed to respond to international developments if they materially affect activity and inflation in Australia.

The move follows rate cuts in February and May, and comes after last monthโ€™s surprise hold, when the RBA said it wanted to see June quarter CPI data before acting again.

Softer-than-expected inflation and a lift in the jobless rate to 4.3 per cent paved the way for todayโ€™s decision, with the US Federal Reserve also expected to resume easing next month.

Matt Lahood, CEO of Real Estate, The Agency

Matt Lahood. Photo: Supplied

The Agencyโ€™s CEO of Real Estate, Matt Lahood, said the decision would boost confidence on both sides of the transaction ahead of spring.

โ€œThis decision fuels seller confidence and also buyer confidence ahead of the Spring selling season, which across Australia is the most bullish selling period of the year,โ€ Mr Lahood said.

โ€œWith clearance rates north of 70 per cent for the last six months and remaining high over the winter period, we expect to see strong clearance rates continue and potentially go even higher.โ€

The RBAโ€™s next meeting is on 30 September, just before the heart of the spring market.

Tim Lawless, Research Director, Cotality

Tim Lawless. Photo: Supplied

Cotalityโ€™s Tim Lawless said the cut would improve borrowing capacity and support confidence, but affordability constraints would temper price growth.

โ€œThis decision follows a surprise โ€˜holdโ€™ in July. Since then, core inflation has reduced to 2.7%, the lowest in three and a half years, and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, the highest since November 2021,โ€ Mr Lawless said.

โ€œIf lenders pass on the cut in full, the average variable mortgage rate could drop to around 5.5%, saving roughly $120 per month on a $750,000 home loan โ€“ about $370 less than in January.โ€

Mr Lawless said while the backdrop of low supply should support prices, โ€œstretched housing affordability and prudent lending standards are likely to temper the upswing.โ€

Nerida Conisbee, Chief Economist, Ray White Group

Nerida Conisbee, Ray White Group Chief Economist. Photo: Supplied

Ray White Group Chief Economist Nerida Conisbee said the cut was a measured response to confirmed inflation containment and a softening labour market.

โ€œWith headline inflation at 2.1 per cent and trimmed mean at 2.7 per cent, combined with unemployment rising to 4.3 per cent in June, the RBA has provided measured stimulus while maintaining flexibility for future policy adjustments,โ€ Ms Conisbee said.

She noted the decision reverses Julyโ€™s surprise hold, with last weekโ€™s quarterly CPI data validating monthly readings and giving the central bank confidence to ease policy.

โ€œThe measured pace allows policymakers to assess the impact of each adjustment while keeping ammunition for more aggressive action if labour market conditions deteriorate further,โ€ she said.

Ms Conisbee said the cut would inject further stimulus into already strong housing markets. โ€œFor a household with a $750,000 mortgage, this reduction represents monthly savings of approximately $155, providing increased borrowing capacity that will support housing demand,โ€ she said.

Antonia Mercorella, CEO, REIQ

REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella. Image: Supplied

REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella said the third cut of the year would bring โ€œmeaningful financial reliefโ€ for Queensland households.

โ€œA variable mortgage holder with the average new owner-occupier loan in Queensland of $647,000 could save approximately $97 per month if lenders pass on the full cut,โ€ Ms Mercorella said.

She added that the cumulative effect of this yearโ€™s three cuts could lift borrowing capacity for some households by more than $39,000, potentially helping first home buyers onto the ladder.

However, she warned that relief needed to be matched with housing supply action โ€œto ensure affordability gains are not eroded.โ€

Eleanor Creagh, Senior Economist

PropTrack Senior Economist Eleanor Creagh.

Eleanor Creagh said lower interest rates were set to bolster both confidence and borrowing power, with price growth likely to continue.

โ€œAffordability remains severely constrained, but the underlying market pressure of persistent housing undersupply relative to population growth remains in place,โ€ Ms Creagh said.

She noted momentum had strengthened in 2025 after slower conditions in late 2024, with renewed buyer sentiment underpinned by earlier cuts and the prospect of further reductions.

Mathew Tiller, Head of Research, LJ Hooker Group

LJ Hooker Head of Research, Matthew Tiller. Image: Supplied

LJ Hookerโ€™s Mathew Tiller said the cut would be especially welcomed by first-time buyers and upgraders.

โ€œProperty prices are still rising, up 6.4 per cent so far this year due to tight supply and strong demand,โ€ Mr Tiller said.

He expects stock levels to rise through spring, with appraisal numbers already climbing over winter, and forecast another cut in November.

Matt Bell, Chief Economist, Oliver Hume

Oliver Hume Chief Economist, Matt Bell. Image Supplied

Matt Bell said the cut should lift activity in both new and established markets after Julyโ€™s pause temporarily slowed the recovery.

โ€œThe two cuts earlier this year delivered six consecutive months of dwelling price growth and one of the biggest jumps in quarterly land sales in Melbourne,โ€ Mr Bell said.

He expects another cut by December, followed by two more in 2026, to support land sales into late next year.

Thomas McGlynn, CEO, BresicWhitney

Thomas McGlynn, CEO, BresicWhitney. Image: Supplied

BresicWhitneyโ€™s Thomas McGlynn said the decision reinforced growing stability in Sydneyโ€™s market.

โ€œItโ€™s giving buyers and sellers more confidence to make decisions now rather than to wait,โ€ Mr McGlynn said.

He noted a 40% uplift in total sales compared to last year, alongside a near 50% increase in new listings.

โ€œShould we see another rate cut over 2025, itโ€™s likely to lead into a strong start to 2026. Current forecasts suggest Sydney prices could grow between approximately 4% and 8% over the short term.ย Annual inflation is also tracking at 2.7%, and within the RBAโ€™s target band. Unemployment however has increased to 4.3%.ย Both key indicators that support steady conditions. That said, cost-of-living pressures will still influence the pace of growth.

โ€œBy and large, these are positive developments and weโ€™re supportive of a more balanced market that can accommodate a diverse buying and selling ambitions.โ€

Andrew Winter, Property Expert, Compare the Market

Andrew Winter. Photo Supplied

Compare the Marketโ€™s Andrew Winter said the savings from todayโ€™s cut could be matched or exceeded by equity gains if property prices rise.

โ€œHomeowners are about to feel a lot better off because not only are their repayments getting reduced, theyโ€™re benefiting from an equity boost as well,โ€ Mr Winter said.

However, he cautioned buyers to โ€œstress testโ€ their mortgage and sell before buying if upsizing in a tight market.

Denita Wawn, CEO, Master Builders Australia

Denita Wawn. Photo Supplied

Master Builders Australia CEO Denita Wawn said todayโ€™s rate cut delivers welcome relief for the building and construction industry, as well as Australians facing high mortgage and rental costs.

โ€œOver the past several months, weโ€™ve heard from builders that consumers are still reluctant to pursue new home building. Hopefully, todayโ€™s announcement gives them a bit more reassurance,โ€ Ms Wawn said.

She said while lower rates would help reduce the cost of doing business and lift demand, the industryโ€™s ability to respond was constrained by declining productivity, labour shortages, red tape and inefficient planning systems.

โ€œThese make it more costly and less speedy to roll out new homes and other vital projects, limiting our ability to translate higher demand into increased building output,โ€ she said.

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Rowan Crosby

Rowan Crosby is a senior journalist at Elite Agent specialising in finance and real estate.