Three in four property professionals expect a significant number of residential investors to sell up or stop investing as a result of the Federal Government’s tax reforms, according to new polling from Herron Todd White.
The finding comes from live polling of 513 legal, financial, banking and property professionals during Herron Todd White’s Tax Reform and Professional Property Advice Webinar on 25 June 2026, which generated more than 1,400 engagement interactions including 1,356 poll responses.
Seventy-five per cent of respondents said they expected a significant number of investors to sell or stop investing because of the reforms.
Herron Todd White chief executive officer Peter Maloney said the results reflected the views of people who work with property transactions daily.
“These findings reflect the views of professionals who advise, finance, value, and regulate property transactions every day,” he said.
“The overwhelming view among respondents is that the tax reforms will reduce investor participation and do nothing to lift housing supply, which remains one of Australia’s most pressing economic challenges.”
Mr Maloney raised a specific concern about how the reforms interact with negative gearing rules for established versus new properties.
“When investors are prevented from purchasing established properties, with the benefit of negative gearing, there is genuine concern the impacts could extend to downstream rental supply, housing confidence and broader market activity.”
He said there was nothing to suggest investors would suddenly take advantage of negative gearing on new dwellings to help fuel supply, and if they did, first home buyers would end up competing directly with investors in that category of housing – the category in which first home buyers are more likely to start their home ownership journey.
On values, 78 per cent of respondents expect residential property values to decline over the next two years if the reforms proceed. Of those, 37.7 per cent expect a decline of between 5 and 10 per cent, 28.4 per cent expect a decline of up to 5 per cent, and 11.8 per cent expect a decline of more than 10 per cent. Just 14.7 per cent expect no material change, and 7.4 per cent expect values to increase.
“While the extent of any market adjustment remains uncertain, there is a clear expectation among industry participants that the proposed reforms would place downward pressure on residential property values.”
On supply, the polling found little confidence the reforms would help. Forty-three-and-a-half per cent of respondents said the reforms would worsen housing supply shortages, 31 per cent said they would have no material impact, 16 per cent were unsure, and just 9.4 per cent believed the reforms would improve supply.
“Nearly three in four respondents (74.5 per cent) believed the reforms would either worsen housing supply or have no material beneficial impact,” he said.
“Less than one in ten professionals surveyed believe these reforms will improve housing supply outcomes. That is a significant finding given housing supply and affordability remain central to Australia’s economic and social policy agenda.”