Nerida Conisbee: low volume winter looks likely

In April, new listings were down 17.1 per cent with Sydney and Melbourne seeing the biggest falls.

A look at listing authorities shows the end in the decline does not look close. 

Listing authorities are the step prior to the listing being placed on a real estate portal.

It is when the vendor signs with the agent but the property has not yet been advertised.

While our tracking of new listings is across all agencies, it is only possible for us to track listing authorities across Ray White businesses.

With Ray White selling around one in six homes, it is a decent enough sample for us to get an indication of what the next month holds for new listings.

Unfortunately it doesn’t look particularly positive. 

Listing authorities are down 17 per cent over the past month.

Compared to the same time last year, they are down 21 per cent.

The states with the biggest falls are NSW and WA – in both states, listing authorities are down well over 25 per cent.

Since the start of 2023, Australian house prices have risen by 1.6 per cent.

In April however, we saw them draw back slightly, with the biggest falls occurring in Sydney and Melbourne.

While house price growth is being driven by a shortage of stock and high population growth, it is being moderated by the cost of finance.

While price growth tends to draw out more sellers, last week’s interest rate rise could delay their return.

It looks like we may be in for a pretty low volume winter.

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Nerida Conisbee

Nerida Conisbee is the Chief Economist at Ray White.