Ray White Group Chief Economist, Nerida Conisbee, said national house price growth stalled in July, a marked contrast to June’s strong performance of 1.0 per cent growth.
“The Reserve Bank’s surprise rate hold clearly impacted market momentum, with national house prices remaining flat in July,” Ms Conisbee said.
“However, this pause appears temporary as markets position themselves for renewed acceleration with a widely anticipated 0.25 per cent rate cut expected in August, followed by two additional cuts before year’s end.”
Ms Conisbee said that despite the slowdown, national house prices reached $950,000 in July 2025, while unit prices climbed to $700,000, representing annual growth rates of 6.4 per cent and 5.2 per cent respectively.
Major markets showed varied responses to the rate hold, with Sydney houses moderating from 0.5 per cent to 0.2 per cent monthly growth and Melbourne slipping into negative territory.
“Brisbane experienced the most pronounced cooling, falling from 1.1 per cent to 0.2 per cent monthly growth,” she said.
“Even Perth, the nation’s fastest-growing market, moderated from 1.3 per cent to 0.6 per cent monthly growth, though it maintained its leadership position.”
The standout story according to Ms Conisbee was the remarkable resilience of unit markets, which maintained solid 0.3 per cent monthly growth despite broader market conditions.
“Sydney units defied all trends by accelerating from 0.2 per cent to 0.4 per cent monthly growth – the only market segment nationally to improve during the rate hold period,” she said.
“This unit resilience reflects chronic undersupply in the apartment sector and declining housing affordability driving buyers towards smaller homes.”
She said that Perth units maintained exceptional 1 per cent monthly growth, whilst Brisbane units at 0.6 per cent significantly outperformed Brisbane houses at just 0.2 per cent.
Looking ahead, Ms Conisbee predicted a strong market rebound once rate cuts begin.
“Once the expected rate cuts commence in August, housing markets should return to the acceleration trajectory witnessed earlier in 2025,” she said.
“The combination of lower borrowing costs and pent-up demand from July’s pause could deliver a particularly strong rebound.
“If the anticipated cutting cycle delivers three reductions by year’s end, national house price growth could accelerate beyond the current 6.4 per cent annual rate, potentially reaching double-digit territory.”
Ms Conisbee believes unit markets are particularly well-positioned to benefit from the expected monetary easing.
“Unit markets, having demonstrated resilience during the hold period, appear particularly well-positioned to benefit from renewed easing,” she said.
“The structural tailwinds of supply constraints and affordability-driven demand should amplify the impact of lower rates, potentially pushing annual unit growth well above the current 5.2 per cent national rate.”
