The proportion of consumers expecting to take on home loans rose from 7.86 per cent in March 2025 to 11.46 per cent by October 2025, reflecting a significant shift in sentiment toward property ownership.
This surge coincides with a decline in those expecting no new debt, which dropped from 75.11 per cent to 65.85 per cent during the same period, indicating growing consumer confidence in taking on financial commitments.
Data collected from 11,375 Australian consumers between March and October 2025 shows the acceleration in home loan intentions was particularly pronounced from July onwards, with percentages nearly doubling from May’s low point of 7.04 per cent.
“We’re seeing consumers move from hesitation to action across multiple indicators simultaneously,” Michael Johnson, Director at Agile Market Intelligence said.
“When debt expectations, financial priorities, and purchase plans all trend in the same direction over eight months, that’s not statistical noise. That’s a genuine behavioural shift.”
The research also reveals a substantial increase in Australians prioritising saving for house deposits.
By September 2025, 14.66 per cent of consumers identified this as their primary financial priority, up from 10.98 per cent in March.
This shift occurred alongside reduced pressure from day-to-day expenses, which declined from 23.98 per cent to 20.78 per cent, creating space for longer-term wealth-building goals.
Among non-homeowners, those planning to buy within 12 months increased dramatically from 5.33 per cent in March to 8.13 per cent in September 2025, representing a 77 per cent increase in immediate purchase intentions.
The September surge in purchase plans followed the August 25 announcement of the expanded First Home Guarantee scheme, which launched on October 1, 2025.
This policy change removed income limits and place caps while raising property price thresholds, effectively lowering the deposit requirement from 20 per cent to 5 per cent.
“The September surge in concrete purchase plans came immediately after the August 25 guarantee scheme announcement but before the October 1 implementation. This shows how quickly policy changes can shift consumer behaviour when they materially improve affordability,” Mr Johnson said.
The expanded scheme allows all first home buyers to purchase with just a 5 per cent deposit, potentially saving buyers tens of thousands of dollars in Lenders Mortgage Insurance and years of saving time.
Credit card intentions also increased during this period, rising from 6.89 per cent to 8.83 per cent, while investment loan intentions grew from 4.61 per cent to 5.70 per cent, further indicating broader consumer confidence in taking on debt.
“The convergence of declining cost-of-living pressure and rising deposit-saving priorities tells us consumers are finding breathing room in their budgets and directing it towards property,” Mr Johnson said.
“The expanded guarantee scheme fundamentally changed the economics of first-home buying. When you can now purchase with a 5 per cent deposit instead of 20 per cent, and avoid Lenders Mortgage Insurance entirely, you’re cutting years off the deposit-saving timeline.”
