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Australia facing GFC-level rental price hikes

Australia's rental market is experiencing price increases not seen since the Global Financial Crisis, with projections indicating more pain ahead for renters across the country.

According to analysis of ABS data by Money.com.au, rents have surged by 14.2 per cent over the past two years, more than double the overall inflation rate of 6.6 per cent.

This includes a 7.3 per cent rise in 2023, followed by a 6.4 per cent increase in 2024.

The last comparable period of rental growth occurred during 2007-2008 at the height of the GFC, when rent growth peaked at 8.4 per cent.

Based on current trends, projections show rents could rise another 18 per cent by 2030.

Money.com.au’s Property Expert, Mansour Soltani, said renters are being left behind as inflation eases for other Australians.

“The general rate of inflation is easing and back within the RBA’s target range, which is good news for homeowners desperate for more rate relief,” Mr Soltani said.

“But rents, as they relate to overall inflation, keep rising at a faster rate, so there’s a growing divide between homeowners who are likely to see another rate cut soon and lower mortgage repayments, and renters who will continue bearing the brunt of the housing crisis.”

Perth has experienced the most significant rental increases among capital cities, with prices jumping 19.9 per cent over the past two years.

Brisbane and Sydney follow closely with increases of 15.8 per cent and 15.4 per cent, all exceeding the national average.

Melbourne saw a 12.7 percent rise in rental prices, while Adelaide experienced a 12.2 per cent increase. Darwin and Canberra recorded more modest increases at 7.3 per cent and 3 per cent.

Hobart was the only capital city to record a decline in rents at -1.5 percent.

The rental crisis is forcing many Australians to consider relocating.

Survey data from Money.com.au reveals that 47 per cent of renters would move to a different suburb or city to find cheaper rent.

More than one in ten renters (14 per cent) are currently looking to relocate to more affordable areas to save on housing costs.

Younger renters appear most affected, with 17 per cent of Gen Z renters actively seeking cheaper housing, followed by 15 per cent of Gen X renters.

The combination of population growth, record-low vacancy rates in capital cities, and limited housing supply suggests the rental crisis may continue for some time.

“The last time we saw rent rises like this was during the GFC, and back then, it took years for the market to stabilise,” Mr Soltani said.

“If that’s anything to go by, we could be in for a long stretch of above-average rent growth.

“With population growth, record-low vacancy rates in capital cities, and limited housing supply, it could take even longer this time around.”

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Rowan Crosby

Rowan Crosby is a senior journalist at Elite Agent specialising in finance and real estate.