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National home values record first decline in almost two years

CoreLogicโ€™s Home Value Index (HVI) ended 2024 with its first national decline in nearly two years, dropping by -0.1% in December.

After peaking in October and holding steady in November, the December dip also pulled the quarterly change into negative territory, marking a -0.1% drop.

This small decline brings an end to a robust period of growth that lasted from February 2023 to October 2024โ€”a period defined by high interest rates, cost-of-living pressures, and reduced borrowing capacity.

CoreLogicโ€™s research director, Tim Lawless, explained that the decline was not unexpected.

โ€œThis result represents the housing market catching up with the reality of market dynamics,โ€ he said.

โ€œGrowth in housing values has been consistently weakening through the second half of the year, as affordability constraints weighed on buyer demand and advertised supply levels trended higher.โ€

Mid-sized capitals lead annual growth

While national home values rose by 4.9% over 2024, adding approximately $38,000 to the median home value, the performance varied significantly across different regions.

Three capital cities, Melbourne (-3.0%), Hobart (-0.6%), and the ACT (-0.4%), recorded annual declines.

On the other hand, mid-sized capitals showed remarkable gains, with Perth leading at 19.1%, followed by Adelaide at 13.1% and Brisbane at 11.2%.

Despite their strong annual growth, these markets appear to have passed their peak rates of increase.

Perthโ€™s annual growth slowed from a high of 24.7% in July, Adelaide eased from 14.6% in August, and Brisbane peaked at 17.0% in April.

December saw a shift in quarterly rankings, with Adelaide surpassing Perth as the strongest-performing market.

Adelaide values rose 2.1% over the December quarter, compared to 1.9% for Perth and 1.3% for Brisbane.

โ€œExtremely low advertised stock levels have continued to support strong growth conditions across Adelaide, with stock levels tracking -34% below the previous five-year average in mid-December,โ€ Mr Lawless explained.

โ€œPerth, on the other hand, has seen a clear lift in advertised supply, which has provided buyers with more choice and less urgency, supporting a sharper slowdown in value growth relative to Adelaide,โ€ he added.

Affordability drives growth in lower-priced markets

The most affordable quartile of capital city markets showed the highest rates of value growth in 2024.

Across the combined capitals, lower-quartile housing values rose by 9.8%, while upper-quartile values increased by just 1.5%.

โ€œWith worsening affordability constraints and reduced borrowing capacity, we have seen buyer demand pushed towards lower-priced markets, which has, in turn, supported stronger growth conditions in these areas,โ€ Mr Lawless said.

Regional markets also performed strongly, with values rising 6.0% over the year, compared to 4.5% across the combined capital cities.

Regional Western Australia (+16.1%), South Australia (+12.5%), and Queensland (+10.5%) dominated value growth.

However, regional Victoria (-2.7%) and the Northern Territory (-4.7%) were the only areas to record annual declines.

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Catherine Nikas-Boulos

Catherine Nikas-Boulos is the Digital Editor at Elite Agent and has spent the last 20 years covering (and coveting) real estate around the country.