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Little movement in the property clock

As Victoria reopens for business, Herron Todd White has reported very little movement in the property clock over September with just a few select regions improving their position while major markets like Sydney and Melbourne remain in decline.

This month Herron Todd White notes the capitals of Adelaide, Canberra, and Hobart retain poll position, Albany in WA has reached the bottom of the market, while Alice Springs and Darwin in the Northern Territory, and  Brisbane and Ipswich in Queensland have entered the start of recovery.

Mildura in Victoria is now pegged as a rising market, and Geelong in Victoria is nearing the peak.

Here’s a recap of this month’s Herron Todd White Property Clock as part of their October Month in Review.

Land and construction activity evident

While there’s little sign of movement in this month’s property clock, Herron Todd White notes their research indicates government stimulus like HomeBuilder is beginning to have an effect.

“The resilience of residential property markets has surprised many this year, with a mix of factors including reduced interest rates and wage support all playing their part,” CEO Gary Brinkworth said

“One Federal Government scheme that originally drew a deal of scepticism was HomeBuilder – a program designed to stimulate the construction industry and protect employment in the building sector.”

But has it worked? Mr Brinkworth notes this month’s report indicates in some areas it has, with increased activity in the sector.

Highlights of this report include:

  • In Sydney, Inner-Sydney residents are decentralising to the west and some builders are offering incentives worth up to $50,000 to attract clients
  • In Melbourne, there’s concern among some agents that the spring selling period is effectively over for them and vendors will hold off selling until 2021
  • The Brisbane market is being driven by confidence across a range of factors including expectations of rising interstate migration in the near future, and;
  • Regional centres around the nation are seeing increased land and construction activity.

So, with that in mind, who currently sits where on the property clock according to Herron Todd White?

Peak of the market – no movement

There’s been no movement in terms of regions sitting at the top of the clock, with both homes and units reflecting similar conditions

Homes – Adelaide, Adelaide Hills, Albury, Barossa Valley, Bathurst, Burnie/Devonport, Canberra, Dubbo Hobart, Launceston, and Tamworth all sit at the top of the clock for housing.

Units – It’s a similar line-up in the unit sector, with Adelaide, Adelaide Hills, Albury, Barossa Valley, Bathurst, Burnie/Devonport, Central Coast, Hobart, Launceston, and Tamworth all in peak position.

Starting to decline – No movement

Again, there’s been no movement in this sector.

Houses – Newcastle and Wodonga still show signs of starting to decline in homes

Units – Wodonga is holding steady in this position for units

Declining market – No movement

The declining market continues its slump, but the players who remain here are significant.

Houses – In terms of houses, the Central Coast, Melbourne, and Sydney remain in official decline

Units – When it comes to units, the line-up is similar with Canberra, the Gold Coast, Melbourne, Newcastle, Perth, and Sydney all continuing to be named as declining markets.

Approaching bottom of the market – No movement

Houses and Units – Both Geraldton and Kalgoorlie remain in this position for both houses and units.

Bottom of the market – Slight movement

There’s been slight movement when it comes to who has reached the bottom of the market with Albany now represented in terms of both houses and units.

Houses  – Albany has joined Broome, Bundaberg, and the Southern Tablelands.

Units – Albany and Ipswich have joined Broome, Bundaberg, the Southern Tablelands, and Toowoomba.

Start of recovery – Movement

In good news, both regional areas and capitals are starting to show signs of recovery, according to Herron Todd White, with Brisbane, Darwin and Alice Springs among the areas named in this sector.

Houses  – Alice Springs, Brisbane, Darwin, Ipswich have joined Cairns, Perth, South West WA, Toowoomba, Townsville, and Whitsunday in the start of recovery.

Units – Alice Springs, Brisbane, Darwin, and Whitsunday have joined Cairns, Emerald, Illawarra, Mildura, South West WA, the Southern Highlands, and Townsville.

Rising market – Movement

Regional areas are heavily represented in the rising market quadrant, perhaps reflecting Australia’s newfound appetite for a seachange or treechange.

Houses – In terms of housing markets now categorised as rising, Mildura has joined Ballina/Byron Bay, Coffs Harbour, Emerald, Gladstone, Gold Coast, Hervey Bay, Illawarra, Karratha, Lismore, Mackay, Mount Gambier, Port Hedland, Rockhampton, Shepparton, and the Southern Highlands

Units – There has been no movement in the unit sector, but again the regions are well-represented. Ballina/Byron Bay, Coffs Harbour, Dubbo, Gladstone, Hervey Bay, Karratha, Lismore, Mackay, Mt Gambier, Port Hedland, Rockhampton, and Shepparton all remain positioned as a rising market.

Approaching peak

This quadrant has been sparsely populated for some time, with the Sunshine Coast enjoying this position for several months. Now, they’re joined by Geelong.

Houses and Units – Geelong joins the Sunshine Coast

You can view the full residential property clock and October Month in Review here.

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