Heron Todd White (HTW) has released their month in review, with a series of new areas entering different positions on the property clock courtesy of recent COVID-19 events.
Top of the clock are a swag of new areas, with Adelaide, Melbourne, Canberra and Hobart among them, while Sydney continues to be positioned in the beginning of decline.
Here’s a quick recap of the latest month in review.
Housing market
Top of the clock
The southern cities dominate the top of the property clock in terms of housing, with Canberra, Melbourne, Adelaide and Hobart all in peak position, according to Herron Todd White.
They’re joined by Adelaide Hills, Albury, Barossa Valley, Bathurst, Dubbo, Geelong, and Tamworth as part of an all-new line up of areas currently at the height of the market.
Coming up the rear and approaching peak is the Gold Coast who joins the Sunshine Coast in this position.
In decline
Cairns, Illawarra, Karratha, Newcastle and Wodonga are all new to the “starting to decline” segment, where they join Sydney, who featured here previously.
In official decline are Brisbane and neighbouring Ipswich who both made a debut in this quadrant of the clock.
Bottoming out
Approaching the bottom of the clock is another entirely new list of contenders with Ballina/Byron Bay Broome, Geraldton, Kalgoorlie, and Lismore all shifting into this position.
They are narrowly behind Alice Springs, Bundaberg, Darwin, Perth, Toowoomba, and the newly-listed Southern Tablelands who are all officially sitting at the bottom of the market.
On the rise
Regional areas of WA and Queensland continue to feature heavily in the rising quadrant. At the start of recovery remains the Whitsundays and Townsville, which have been joined by South West WA and the Southern Highlands.
Meanwhile, a wealth of familiar faces and a lengthy list of new arrivals are in an evergrowing list of areas enjoying a rising market.
These include Burnie/Devenport, Launceston and Mt Mount Gampier who featured here previously and are now joined by Central Coast, Coffs Harbour, Emerald, Gladstone, Hervey Bay, Mackay, Mildura, Port Hedland, Rockhampton, and Shepparton.
Unit market
Top of the clock
Units paint a similar picture. At the top of the property clock are fresh faces Adelaide, Adelaide Hills, Albury, Barossa Valley, Bathurst, Geelong, Hobart, Tamworth, who join the Central Coast and Melbourne in poll position.
Karratha and the Sunshine Coast are “approaching top of the market” and are new entries to the near peak.
In decline
Sydney continues to be considered starting to decline, and is joined by Burnie/Devenport, Illawarra Launceston, Karratha, and Wodonga.
Burnie/Devenport are particularly interesting, considering houses in those areas are just nearing their peak.
Brisbane and Perth remain in official decline, but are joined by newcomers Canberra, the Gold Coast Ipswich, Newcastle, and Perth.
Bottoming out
Heading for the bottom of the market in the units sphere are fresh faces Ballina/Byron Bay, Broome, Geraldton, and Kalgoorlie, while the very bottom sees Alice Springs, Cairns, Coffs Harbour, the Southern Tablelands and Toowoomba now join Bundaberg, Darwin and Whitsunday.
On the rise
Optimistically, the rising side of the clock offers a lengthy list of regions tipped to enjoy improved conditions.
Entering recovery are newcomers Mackay, Mt Gambier, Shepparton, and the Southern Highlands, who join Emerald, South West WA, and Townsville.
In recovery remains Mt Gambier, along with new entrants Dubbo, Gladstone, Hervey Bay, Lismore Mildura, Port Hedland, and Rockhampton.
A little commentary on the capitals
Sydney
Herron Todd White notes Sydney values have been holding fairly steady over the recent month, with auction volumes now increasing and the clearance rate also on the rise, but still slightly lower than pre-COVID lockdowns.
“Despite activity increasing, according to CoreLogic the number of new properties listed for sale is down 6.6 per cent on this time last year, while the number of total listings is down 21.2 per cent,” they note.
“This lack of stock is likely insulating prices somewhat, although we are now seeing the Sydney median price starting to decline, down 0.3 per cent in the week ending 21 June and down 0.8 per cent in the month ending at that date.
“We are still seeing some strong results in the market with quality product still generally performing quite well.”
Melbourne
Melbourne proved more of a mixed bag. HTW notes the pandemic had shaken up the rental market in the CBD and fringe, which in turn shook up investors.
“Many tenants are international students unable to fly back into Australia due to travel restrictions, resulting in a spike in vacancy rates. This has left landlords nervous as this may cause a strain on their mortgage repayment ability for the property.
“We are also seeing quite a number of nomination sales in the CBD market.”
HTW’s further commentary on Melbourne was broken into city region’s with some performing better than others.
Brisbane
HTW explains the easing of restrictions has seen an increase in listings and more activity at open homes in the Queensland capital.
“We have, however, yet to see evidence of changing transaction volumes or price movements,” they state.
“That said, it is worth noting that Brisbane’s economy remains well placed for the future given the state’s low infection rate and slow-but-steady opening of businesses.
“We note with some interest that subject to there being no second wave of infection, analysts remain optimistic of Brisbane’s property market remaining stable and likely for long-term recovery from this point on.”
Adelaide
According to HTW, the Adelaide property market has remained resilient under exceeding pressures, generating a 0.4 per cent increase in dwelling values in May.
“Auction data for the week ending 21 June indicated a clearance rate of 65 per cent from 41 auctions; at the same time last year, the clearance rate was 53 per cent from 106 auctions.
“The data suggests that stock levels are low as vendors remain reluctant to dip their toes back into the market whilst buyer activity remains strong.
“Agent feedback supports this trend with many reporting limited stock but buoyant sales activity over the past four weeks.”
Perth
In Perth, HTW says the residential market has been affected, however house prices and rents remained relatively steady throughout the March quarter.
Meanwhile, REIWA data has revealed that Perth’s rental stock decreased by 17 per cent in May to 4,676, the lowest recorded monthly figure since November 2013.
Darwin
At the height of the Covid-19 crisis, HTW says leading local sales agents were reporting a stable level of interest for stock already on the market and open homes were replaced by private appointments – one agent noting that this had led to more qualified buyers coming through and less tyre kickers.
As a result, Darwin did not see any market reductions that are out of line or increased market reductions as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, however HTW explains some market sectors have been performing quite poorly due to the wider market forces.
Canberra
HTW reports the local Canberra housing market continued to be quite stable.
“There are still active market participants, however there are lower sales listings available. The COVID-19 changes to public auctions did see a quick uptake of online auctions which proved to be quite successful with comparatively good clearance rates.
“The apartment market has continued to experience a long period of strong supply and weakening demand. This has contributed to wider sale price fluctuations.
“The residential tenancy moratorium on evictions has affected rented properties also listed for sale; investors are approaching with more caution due to the uncertainty of rental income and ending the lease agreement during this time.”
Hobart/Launceston/Regional
HTW states COVID-19 seems to have had limited impact on the property market in the northern regions of Tasmania.
“Recent sales evidence indicates that the property market was relatively stable in the second quarter of 2020 with very slight signs of negative activity.
“The days on market have remained steady, with average selling periods of between two and three weeks. The rental market across the northern suburbs for the March quarter was also reflective of a relatively stable environment.”
You can read Herron Todd White’s full Month in Review, July edition here.
