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Herron Todd White: Property clock has run out of batteries with no movement in any market

With the property market remaining the same as July, Herron Todd White’s property clock indicates nearly all Australian residential property sectors are either rising or approaching the peak.

Herron Todd White‘s (HTW) August residential property clock remained identical to last month, with no positional changes in houses or units. The commercial property clock saw some changes.

Residential property clock

The entire property clock has remained significantly unbalanced, with the entire housing sector showing positive results and all but one region showing similar positive results for units.

Top of the clock 

Houses –  Bathurst, Dubbo, Launceston, Tamworth, Canberra and Burnie/Devonport all remaining firmly in place.

Units – Bathurst, Burnie/Devonport, Launceston and Tamworth remain at the peak of the market.

Starting to decline 

No regions are starting to decline in terms of houses or units.

Declining market

Houses – No regions are in decline.

Units – Canberra remained the only declining market when it comes to units.

Approaching bottom of the market

No regions are approaching the bottom of the market for units or houses. 

Bottom of the market 

No regions are at the bottom of the market in terms of houses or units.

Start of recovery 

Houses – In July, Albany moved backwards to ‘start of recovery’ but has remained in place for August. Alice Springs and Bundaberg also remained in this position.

Units – Albany, Alice Springs, Brisbane, Bundaberg, Cairns, Darwin, Emerald, Ipswich, Melbourne, Toowoomba, Townsville, Whitsundays and Sydney remained in place. It should be noted more than 61 per cent of these regions were in Queensland (eight out of 13).

Rising market

Houses – The list of regions in a rising market is remarkably lengthy.

Adelaide, Adelaide Hills, Ballina/Byron Bay, Barossa Valley, Brisbane, Broome, Cairns, Coffs Harbour, Darwin, Emerald, Geraldton, Gladstone, Gold Coast, Hervey Bay, Hobart, Illawarra, Ipswich, Kalgoorlie, Karratha, Lismore, Mackay, Melbourne, Mount Gambier, Newcastle, Perth, Port Hedland, Rockhampton, Shepparton, Southern Highlands, Sunshine Coast, Sydney, Toowoomba, Townsville and Whitsundays were all included.

Units – Like houses, the list of areas where unit values are rising is lengthy: Adelaide, Adelaide Hills, Albury, Ballina/Byron Bay, Barossa Valley, Broome, Coffs Harbour, Dubbo, Geraldton, Gladstone, Gold Coast, Hervey Bay, Hobart, Illawarra, Kalgoorlie, Karratha, Lismore, Mackay, Mount Gambier, Newcastle, Perth, Port Hedland, Rockhampton, Shepparton, Southern Highlands, the Sunshine Coast and Wodonga.

Approaching peak of the market 

Houses – Albury, the Central Coast, Mildura, South West WA, Geelong and Wodonga remained in the same position.

Units – Last month, Central Coast shot up from ‘approaching the bottom of the market’ to ‘approaching peak of the market’ within one month. But this month, it has shown no further movement.

South West WA, Mildura and Geelong also remained in this category.

Commercial property clock

Commercial real estate showed a lot more action, with six regions changing positions in the office property market.

Melbourne moved to a declining market in offices, likely due to the Victorian capital entering its sixth lockdown at the start of the month.

Ipswich was listed as approaching the bottom of the market, while neighbouring city Brisbane hit the bottom of the commercial market this month.

However, we’re likely to see an improvement for Brisbane in the next month, with HTW experts noting the city’s commercial sector was becoming increasingly attractive to investors due to record low interest rates and a low number of lockdowns, as well as the announcement at the end of July it would be hosting the 2032 Olympic Games.

On a more positive note, Newcastle is placed in start of recovery.

The Gold Coast, Coffs Harbour and Rockhampton were placed in the rising market quadrant.

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Jessamy Tredinnick

Jessamy Tredinnick is a news journalist for Elite Agent Magazine. For current stories, news alerts or pitches, please email [email protected]