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Herron Todd White: Property clock shows almost all markets in positive position

Nearly all Australian residential property markets are either rising or approaching their peak, according to Herron Todd White’s national property report for July.

Herron Todd White’s (HTW) July property clock has remained mostly the same as last month, with only six markets showing positional changes for houses and seven changes for units in the residential sector.

Residential

There was only one single market across units and houses in a negative category. The rest of the clock has remained significantly unbalanced, in the best way possible. In fact, there were 28 regions in the ‘rising market’ category alone.

Western Australia saw a considerable amount of the recorded movement, with Broome, South West WA and Albany all showing movement on the national property clock for housing.

Meanwhile, the unit national property clock showed positional changes for South West WA, Perth, Geraldton and Kalgoorlie.

Broome saw positive movement, changing from ‘start of recovery’ to the ‘rising market’ sector. Similarly, the Central Coast, Mildura and South West WA moved from ‘rising market’ to ‘approaching peak of market’ for houses.

However, Albany moved back from ‘rising market’ to ‘start of recovery’.

Top of the clock

Houses – There were no new additions to the top of the clock, with Bathurst, Dubbo, Launceston, Tamworth, Canberra and Burnie/Devonport all remaining firmly in place. However, Albury has scooted back to ‘approaching peak of market’, having been in the ‘peak of market’ for houses last month.

Units – There was no change when it came to units either. Bathurst, Burnie/Devonport, Launceston and Tamworth remain at the peak of the market.

Starting to decline

No regions are starting to decline in terms of houses or units.

Declining market

Houses – No regions are in decline.

Units – Canberra remained the only declining market when it comes to units.

Approaching bottom of the market

No regions are approaching the bottom of the market for units or houses.

Bottom of the market

No regions are at the bottom of the market in terms of houses or units.

Start of recovery

Houses – Albany moved backwards to ‘start of recovery’ this month, while Alice Springs and Bundaberg remain in this position.

Units – There are no new entrants to this category for units. Albany, Alice Springs, Brisbane, Bundaberg, Cairns, Darwin, Emerald, Ipswich, Melbourne, Toowoomba, Townsville, Whitsundays and Sydney remained in place. It should be noted more than 61 per cent of these regions were in Queensland (eight out of 13).

Rising market

Houses – The list of regions in a rising market is remarkably lengthy, but notably Broome has now moved up to this category.

Meanwhile, regions remaining here are: Adelaide, Adelaide Hills, Ballina/Byron Bay, Barossa Valley, Brisbane, Cairns, Coffs Harbour, Darwin, Emerald, Geraldton, Gladstone, Gold Coast, Hervey Bay, Hobart, Illawarra, Ipswich, Kalgoorlie, Karratha, Lismore, Mackay, Melbourne, Mount Gambier, Newcastle, Perth, Port Hedland, Rockhampton, Shepparton, Southern Highlands, Sunshine Coast, Sydney, Toowoomba, Townsville and Whitsundays.

Units – Perth, Wodonga, Kalgoorlie and Geraldton all moved to rising market this month.

Like houses, the list of areas where unit values are rising is lengthy: Adelaide, Adelaide Hills, Albury, Ballina/Byron Bay, Barossa Valley, Broome, Coffs Harbour, Dubbo, Gladstone, Gold Coast, Hervey Bay, Hobart, Illawarra, Karratha, Lismore, Mackay, Mount Gambier, Newcastle, Port Hedland, Rockhampton, Shepparton, Southern Highlands and the Sunshine Coast.

Approaching peak of the market

Houses – As previously noted, Albury, the Central Coast, Mildura and South West WA all moved into the ‘approaching peak of the market’ segment this month. Geelong and Wodonga remained in the same position.

Units – Most notably, the Central Coast shot up from ‘approaching the bottom of the market’ to ‘approaching peak of the market’ within one month.

HTW valuers Todd Beckman, Julia Miller and Jemma Brisco pointed out that while a $700,000 price point in the region used to be considered as the ‘upgrader market’, it is now the entry level to many suburbs in the Central Coast.

South West WA and Mildura also moved to this category, while Geelong remained.

Commercial

HTW Commercial Director Angeline Mann and retail specialist valuer Vanessa Hoey revealed the retail sector remained surprisingly resilient over the past month, despite lockdowns in different states.

Ms Mann suggested Sydney’s market will rebound as soon as lockdown finishes.

“Things certainly improved this year compared to last year,” she said.

“Just before this current lockdown, you couldn’t get a restaurant reservation in Sydney. Of course, it’s a very industry specific resilience.

“Cafés and restaurants bounced back well, but businesses such as travel agents continue to struggle.”

Ms Mann said many operators learned valuable lessons in 2020 that are helping them weather this 2021 lockdown.

She explained that the way certain properties can adapt is having an impact on values and rents too.

“So if you own a retail property which can utilise additional space when needed, it becomes even more attractive to tenants and investors,” Ms Mann said.

“There’s still an element of caution in the market. Whilst the existing traders might be doing well, it doesn’t mean there’s this rush of people wanting to expand or to open a new business. So, we’re still seeing vacancy high across most of the retail areas.”

Sydney was listed as a declining market on the national property clock for retail, alongside Cairns, Darwin, Echuca, Geraldton, Melbourne, Newcastle and Toowoomba.

There were no changes in position across any category.

The Central Coast and South East NSW remained at the peak of the market, while the Sunshine Coast was approaching the peak of the market.

Canberra, Geelong, Gippsland, the Gold Coast and the Mid North Coast were starting to decline, while Hobart, Illawarra and South West WA were approaching the bottom of the market.

Alice Springs, Emerald, Gladstone, Perth and Rockhampton remained trapped at the bottom of the market.

However, Adelaide, Adelaide Hills, the Barossa Valley, Bundaberg, Coffs Harbour, Hervey Bay, Ipswich, Lismore, Mackay, Mildura, and Townsville remained hopeful in the ‘state of recovery’ category.

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Jessamy Tredinnick

Jessamy Tredinnick was the news journalist for Elite Agent Magazine from June 2021 - October 2021. For current stories, news alerts or pitches, please email [email protected]