CPI edges towards RBA target

Newly released figures show the All Group Consumer Price Index for September increased at a similar rate to the previous quarter, while the changes in the analytical series were the highest they’ve been in six years.

The ABS figures revealed the All Groups CPI increased by 0.8 per cent in the September quarter and by 3.0 per cent for the year. In June, those figures were 0.8 per cent and 4.1 per cent respectively.

Petrol prices were a major contributor to the CPI with prices approaching the record high seen in the March 2014 quarter, due to higher global oil prices in the post-COVID recovery and supply disruptions.

“The quarterly changes for the analytical series of trimmed mean and for the weighted median, which exclude large one-off price impacts, were both at 0.7 per cent and 2.1 per cent for the year,” Real Estate Institute of Australia President, Adrian Kelly, said.

The September quarter saw trimmed mean inflation increase from 1.6 per cent to 2.1 per cent, he said.

“Whilst the analytical series are well within the RBA’s target rate of two to three per cent, and suggest there will be no immediate pressures on interest rates, any further increases in the series may see revision of the RBA’s expectation of no change in interest rates till 2024,” Mr Kelly said.

The figures revealed the housing group increased by 1.7 per cent for the September quarter and 1.6 per cent for the year.

Mr Kelly said those increases were largely attributable to the largest rise in new dwelling prices since September 2000 when the GST was introduced.

“The capital city weighted increase in rents was 0.2 per cent for the year with a fall over the year of 1.2 per cent for the year,” he said.

Sydney and Melbourne experienced decreases, the third consecutive quarterly fall for Sydney and the second consecutive quarterly fall for Melbourne, whilst the remaining capital cities had increases.

The largest of which was in Perth with a quarterly increase of 2.5 per cent and an annual increase of 5.5 per cent.

“International experience has shown that as Australia lifts its COVID restrictions, inflation is likely to be buffeted by supply-side disruptions and as such, factors driving up prices are more likely to be transitory rather than embedded in the economy,” Mr Kelly said.

“Nevertheless, the global economy’s rebound out of the COVID recession has been faster than expected, and a return to ‘normal’ monetary policy settings will most likely occur before 2024.” 

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Nicole Madigan

Nicole Madigan is Senior Journalist and Content Producer for Elite Agent.

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