Australia’s economy is on firmer footing heading into 2026, but mixed signals across inflation, jobs and spending are shaping an uncertain backdrop for property and investment decisions, according to CommBank’s latest View report.
The bank’s economists say growth is improving, with GDP up 1.8 per cent and forecast to reach 2.2 per cent by the end of next year, supported by rising consumer confidence and renewed activity in the housing market.
However, wage growth has slowed, inflation remains sticky and employment gains are easing – a combination that may see the Reserve Bank hold off on cuts until early 2026.
CBA Chief Economist Luke Yeaman described the moment as “an important juncture,” with housing one of the key engines helping to steady domestic activity.
House prices and household spending are both rising, but many families remain cautious, opting to save rather than spend freely.
For real estate professionals, the outlook signals a gradual return to confidence rather than a boom.
As affordability improves and borrowing conditions stabilise, agents could see more balanced conditions through 2025 – with sellers re-entering the market and buyers returning after a period of hesitation.
Globally, CBA notes that improved economic prospects are tempered by ongoing geopolitical risks, including renewed US-China tensions and slowing Chinese growth.
Those factors could influence Australian commodity exports, building costs and investor sentiment, particularly in development and commercial property sectors.
With a possible final rate cut on the horizon and population growth still underpinning demand, the next 12 months are likely to be defined by measured optimism rather than exuberance; a period where steady confidence may be the real estate industry’s greatest advantage.
