A new survey from Finder reveals sharp division among Australia’s leading economists on whether the country’s cost-of-living crisis is over, amid falling mortgage stress and rising household savings — but with ongoing concerns over housing affordability and widening inequality.
Finder’s July 2025 RBA Cash Rate Survey* asked 34 experts and economists to weigh in on the future of Australia’s economy.
A near-unanimous 88% of respondents (30 out of 34) believe the Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate to 3.60% at its next meeting.
However, opinions varied significantly on whether the cost-of-living crisis has officially ended.
Out of 25 experts who responded to the cost-of-living question, 44% said the crisis is over. The rest remain unconvinced.
Signs of Recovery: Savings Up, Mortgage Stress Down
Finder’s Consumer Sentiment Tracker data shows positive trends:
- Average monthly household savings rose to a record high of $932 in June 2025 (up from $614 in June 2023)
- Mortgage stress has dropped to 34%, its lowest level in two years
- Australians are now saving more than they were in May 2022, before interest rate hikes began
Graham Cooke, Finder’s head of consumer research, noted the growing divide in financial experiences.
“Whether the cost-of-living crisis is over really depends on who you ask. Rents are still sky-high and relief is being more directly felt by homeowners. The property class divide in Australia is widening.”
Stark Contrasts in Financial Reality
Despite encouraging indicators, many Australians remain in financial distress.
According to Finder’s research:
- 43% of Australians have less than $1,000 in savings
- 18% have no savings at all
- Real household disposable income has declined by nearly 10% since its peak
- Grocery prices are unlikely to fall in 2025
Dr Stella Huangfu of the University of Sydney cautioned against declaring victory.
“The cost of essential goods and services remains high. Many Australians are still struggling to keep up with living expenses.”
Others, like Jakob Madsen of the University of Western Australia, argue the crisis has been exaggerated.
“The so-called cost-of-living crisis is blown up and clearly not of the scale we saw in the 1970s and 1980s. Most remuneration is indexed to consumer prices, so the standard of living has not changed much.”
Housing Crisis the Real Culprit?
Several experts suggested that the cost-of-living issues are largely a symptom of Australia’s worsening housing crisis.
Kyle Rodda from Capital.com stated, “If you rent, things are tough.
If you are leveraged to your eyeballs on your home, things are tough.
The crisis is likely to continue given the supply-driven nature of the problem.”
Adjunct Professor Noel Whittaker from QUT pointed to a growing two-speed economy.
“We are living in very much a two-tier society, and the gaps between the haves and the have-nots appear to be widening.”
Rate Cuts May Help, But Not for Everyone
Graham Cooke noted that more rate cuts will be required to ease pressure further, though renters may continue to feel the pinch.
While some experts, like Saul Eslake and Stephen Koukoulas, believe increasing real wages signal the beginning of the end for the crisis, others are less optimistic.
AMP’s Shane Oliver predicted that real wages may not return to 2020 levels until the early 2030s.
The Verdict
Finder’s survey shows a near-even split:
- 44% of experts say the crisis is over
- 56% believe it continues
The data suggests improvement for some households, particularly mortgage-holders, but ongoing hardship for renters and low-income Australians.
The divide between the financially stable and those under strain appears to be deepening — and whether the crisis is over may depend entirely on where you sit on that divide.
*Source: Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey, July 2025.
