Sydney’s housing stagnation has emerged as the single biggest threat to the federal government’s signature housing agenda, with explosive new data revealing a devastating slump in New South Wales is driving a massive nationwide shortfall.
An independent analysis of the National Housing Accord reveals Australia must immediately supercharge housing construction by a staggering 49 per cent if there is any hope of hitting Labor’s target of 1.2 million homes by mid-2029.
The figures paint a bleak picture of the nation’s building capacity. In the 18 months since the ambitious plan was launched, just 268,445 homes have been completed.
If construction continues at this sluggish pace, the nation will finish 305,183 homes short of its goal, wiping out nearly one in four of the dwellings promised to a desperate market.
Despite Housing Minister Clare O’Neil recently reaffirming Labor’s ironclad commitment to the 1.2 million target, the reality on the ground tells a radically different story.
Since the Accord’s inception, Australia has averaged a mere 44,741 completions per quarter. To bridge the widening gap, the construction sector must somehow pump out 931,555 dwellings over the remaining three and a half years.
That requires an immediate, unprecedented leap to 66,540 completions every single quarter, which is an extra 21,799 homes per quarter, or 7,266 every month, above current output.
“The numbers are clear. To meet the target, completions need to lift by 49% from today’s average,” said Peter Drennan, director of Primara Research, which conducted the study for HomeLoanRates.com.au.
“That’s an additional 7,266 homes per month above what is currently being built. It’s not impossible, but nothing in the current trajectory suggests it’s happening.”
The great state divide
The research also exposes a profound structural crisis across state borders, with NSW firmly established as the nation’s primary bottleneck.
While Victoria and the ACT are largely pulling their weight, NSW has fallen disastrously behind.
Despite housing 31 per cent of the Australian population, NSW accounts for a dismal 26 per cent of national completions.
The state is currently tracking a catastrophic 39 per cent behind its target, single-handedly accounting for an estimated 7,192 of the 14,914 additional homes required nationally each month.
By contrast, Victoria, with 26 per cent of the population, is punching above its weight to deliver 32 per cent of completions, sitting just 8 per cent behind its population-weighted target.
The ACT is effectively on a perfect trajectory, missing its target by a mere nine dwellings.
The crisis is further compounded by severe construction deficits in Queensland, which is tracking 31 per cent behind target, Tasmania at 50 per cent behind, and the Northern Territory, which has collapsed 81 per cent below its required goal.
“Victoria and the ACT show it can be done at a state level,” Mr Drennan said. “But NSW alone accounts for an estimated half of the national monthly shortfall. Until NSW and the growth states close that gap, the national target remains out of reach.”