INDUSTRY NEWSNationalReal Estate News

Population Growth explodes in Victoria

Late last week the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published demographic data for the September 2016 quarter, showing increases in population overall, most notably in Victoria.

The data showed that at the end of September 2016 there were an estimated 24,220,192 persons living in Australia with the figure having increased by 1.5% over the past year. Vic was the population growth epicentre, with the population increasing by 2.1% over the year; a seven year high, with growth elsewhere recorded at: 1.4% in NSW and Qld, 0.6% in SA, 1.0% in WA, 0.5% in Tas, 0.3% in NT and 1.5% in ACT.  Annual population growth in WA was the lowest in at least thirty-five years. Over the year, the national population increased by 348,695 persons with the increases due to natural increase (births minus deaths) of 155,472 persons and net overseas migration of 193,223 persons.

Net overseas migration was strong at a national level however, when looked at across the individual states, most overseas migration is flowing to NSW and Vic.  Over the year, a record-high 75.1% of net overseas migration occurred into NSW (39.6%) and Vic (35.5%).

Net interstate migration to Vic was at an historic high of 17,185 persons over the year while the net outflow of residents to other states and territories from WA was the largest on record at -9,198 persons. Over the year to September 2016, 367,769 persons moved interstate, representing 1.5% of the national population.  Interstate movements nationally increased by 6.5% over the year.

Interstate movements data showed that Vic attracted a historic high number of arrivals over the past year from each of: NSW (29,554 persons), Qld (21,502 persons), SA (9,679 persons), WA (11,488 persons) and NT (3,090 persons).  At the same time, interstate departures from WA  were at an historic high level over the year to: NSW (9,722 persons), Vic (11,488 persons) and Qld (9,677 persons). The strong population growth in Victoria can be partly attributed to strong rate of jobs growth within the Melbourne area, as well as the relative affordability of  Melbourne housing compared with Sydney.

Based on CoreLogic’s latest median price data, Melbourne house prices are 24% or $215,000 lower than Sydney’s.


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Cameron Kusher

Cameron Kusher is CoreLogic RP Data’s senior research analyst, specialising in primary and secondary data analysis, property market commentary and consultancy. Cameron has a thorough understanding of the fundamentals such as demographics, trends, economics and spacial analysis and is a regular keynote speaker for property-related groups, regulated industry bodies, corporations and the government sectors.