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CoreLogic Property Pulse: Non-capital city housing markers a real mixed bag

Monthly regional market analysis shows that dwelling values across the combined regional housing markets remained relatively unchanged

Prepared by CoreLogic research analyst Cameron Kusher, while the research showed that dwelling values were flat in October, they fell by -0.1% over the quarter and were 4.9% higher over the past 12 months. The quarterly decline in values was the largest fall since the three months to October 2014 while the 4.9% annual change was the lowest annual change since February 2017.

Mr Kusher said, “While the data indicates that the rate of dwelling value growth is slowing, there are some differences occurring across the regional markets of the states and territories.”

Regional NSW
Dwelling values increased by 0.2% in October 2017 to be 0.7% higher over the three months to October 2017 and 9.7% higher over the past year. Monthly, quarterly and annual growth rates are slowing however, regional NSW has recorded faster annual growth than Sydney over the past two months.

Regional Vic
The 0.3% increase in values in October was the greatest monthly increase since April of this year. Over the past three months, values are -0.3% lower while over the past year they have increased by 4.4%. At 4.4% annual growth, the regional areas of Vic are growing at a much slower pace than Melbourne where values are 11.0% higher over the year.

Regional Qld
Dwelling values were -0.2% lower over the month however, they fell by -0.5% over the quarter and were 1.6% higher over the past year. Regional Qld dwelling value growth has continued to underperform the quite moderate growth in Brisbane as regions outside of the south-east corner continue to drag on the performance.

Regional SA
Dwelling values fell by -0.5% over the month, were -2.1% lower over the quarter and -0.9% lower over the past year. While dwelling values are increasing at a moderate pace in Adelaide, outside of the capital city housing demand is much weaker leading to value falls.

Regional WA
While Perth values have not fallen for two months, in Regional WA, dwelling values fell -0.4% in October, they were -1.4% lower over the quarter and -3.0% lower over the year. This indicates that regional WA values have fallen at a slightly faster pace than Perth values over the past year.

Regional Tas
Values were 0.3% higher in October 2017, -0.4% lower over the three months to October and 5.4% higher over the year. Although annual value growth was much slower than in Hobart, it has accelerated from an increase of 1.7% a year ago.

Regional NT
Values rose by 1.1% over the month to be 0.7% higher over the past three months and 1.3% higher over the year. Although growth is still minimal, it is significantly greater than the -5.7% fall in Darwin values over the year.

Mr Kusher said, “Growth in regional dwelling values generally continues to lag capital cities however, in most states the growth in values of regional property markets are generally stronger than they have been over recent years.”

Upcoming Auctions

This week, the busiest suburb for auctions is Reservoir in Victoria with 21 homes scheduled to go to under the hammer, followed by Randwick (NSW), Bentleigh East (Vic) and Craigieburn (Vic), all of which are host to 16 auctions each.

This week, the number of auctions scheduled to take place across the combined capital cities is expected to rise, with 2,714 currently being tracked by CoreLogic, increasing from the 2,046 auctions held last week and lower than results from one year ago (2,897).

Across Melbourne, auction activity is expected to rise considerably after the slowdown seen preceding the Melbourne cup festivities last week, with the city set to host 1,209 auctions this week, up from the 318 auctions held last week.

In Sydney, 1,032 homes are scheduled to go to auction this week, down from the 1,232 auctions held last week. Across the remaining capital cities, there are fewer auctions scheduled this week in Adelaide, Canberra and Perth, while volumes are to rise in Brisbane and Tasmania.

Summary of last week’s results

The combined capital cities saw auction activity fall last week, with 2,046 homes taken to auction returning a final auction clearance rate of 61.5 per cent; this is the lowest weighted average clearance seen since early 2016, falling from 64.5 per cent over the week prior when a significantly higher volume of auctions were held (3,713). When comparing to results from over the same week one year ago, a much higher 73.6 per cent clearance rate was recorded across 2,517 auctions.

In Melbourne, final results saw the clearance rate increase last week, with 74.3 per cent of the 318 auctions successful, up from the 70.2 per cent across a significantly higher 1,983 auctions over the week prior.

Across Sydney, the final auction clearance rate increased slightly, recording a 59.8 per cent success rate across a slightly higher volume of auctions week on week, with 1,232 held, up from 1,215 the previous week when 58.3 per cent cleared. Across the remaining capital cities, clearance rates improved in Adelaide, Brisbane and Tasmania, while falling in Canberra and Perth.

Geelong recorded the highest clearance rate of all the non-capital city regions, with 75.0 per cent of auctions reporting as successful, while the Wollongong region had the highest volume of auctions (62).

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Azal Khan

Azal Khan was a in-house features writer for Elite Agent Magazine.