The September results confirmed that dwelling values edged 0.2% higher across Australia over the month, led by a 0.3% rise in capital city values and a 0.1% gain across the combined regional markets. The latest figures take national dwelling values 0.5% higher over the September quarter, which is the slowest rate of quarter-on-quarter growth since June 2016, and national values are up 8.0% over the past twelve months.
According to analysis by CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless, the combined capital city trend growth rate is clearly losing steam with dwelling values rising by 0.7% over the September quarter and well down from the recent peak rate of quarter-on-quarter growth which was recorded at 3.5% over the December 2016 quarter.
Mr Lawless said, “This slowing in the combined capitals growth trend is heavily influenced by conditions across the Sydney market where capital gains have stalled.”
SYDNEY’S DETACHED HOUSING SECTOR SLIPS
The September quarter saw Sydney dwelling values edge 0.2% higher and values slipped 0.1% lower over the month. Sydney’s quarterly result was the slowest since values declined by 2.2% over the March quarter of 2016 and it’s the first month-on-month decline after 17 months of consistent capital gains.
Interestingly, across the Sydney housing market, it was the detached housing sector that pulled the monthly and quarterly growth rates lower. While unit values are also appreciating at a slower rate, detached housing values were 0.3% lower over the month of September and 0.2% lower over the quarter while unit values recorded a subtle rise. For the Sydney housing market, concerns around unit oversupply is less evident compared with the Brisbane unit sector, or to a lesser extent with Melbourne.
Mr Lawless said, “Potentially the affordability challenges facing Sydney buyers within the detached housing sector are pushing more demand towards the medium to high-density sector, where, based on median values, houses are almost $290,000 more expensive than units.”
MELBOURNE REMAINS RESILIENT
Melbourne’s housing market is also showing slower growth conditions, however, growth remains relatively resilient compared with Sydney. Dwelling values were almost 1% higher over the month of September and rose by 2.0% over the September quarter.
Mr Lawless said, “The stronger housing market conditions in Melbourne are supported by auction clearance rates which have consistently remained above 70%. Additionally, advertised stock levels remain remarkably low and private treaty sales continue to sell rapidly, averaging 30 days on market.”
HOBART REMAINS TOP PERFORMER
Hobart further cemented its position as the best performing housing market after a recent history of sluggish growth conditions. The past twelve months have seen Hobart dwelling values surge 14.3% higher; the highest annual growth rate since 2004. Despite the strong capital gains, the cost of housing remains substantially lower than any other capital city with a typical house value of $412,340 and a median unit value of just under $320,000.
OTHER AREAS HIGHLIGHT MARKET DIVERSITY
The remaining capital cities have shown a diverse performance over recent months. Perth dwelling values look to be moving through the bottom of the cycle, with values edging 0.1% higher over the month, however, values remain down over the quarter and year.
For Darwin, the housing market isn’t showing the same signs of bottoming out with dwelling values slipping 0.7% lower over the month and 4% lower over the September quarter. In Brisbane, the market has seen a growing divergence between the performances of houses compared with units; house values were 0.2% higher over the month to be 4.0% higher over the year, while unit values showed an increase over the month but remain 2.5% lower over the past year. Adelaide dwelling values held firm over the month but have shown a 5.0% rise over the year.
Across the regional areas of Australia, growth rates have generally been lower compared to capital cities performance. The combined regional housing markets saw dwelling values unchanged over the September quarter compared with a 0.7% rise in capital city dwelling values. Similarly, over the past twelve months, regional values were 5.6% higher compared with an 8.5% rise in capital city values.
More in-depth area analysis of the CoreLogic September home value results by Mr Lawless showed that growth rates have been remarkably strong in some regional markets, particularly those adjacent to the Sydney metro area.
The strongest regional performer was the Newcastle and Lake Macquarie SA4 region, where values were 15.3% higher over the past twelve months. Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven (+14.3%) and Illawarra (+13.5%) rounded out the top three regional markets based on the 12-month change in dwelling values.
In Victoria, the strongest regional market was Geelong (+11.4%), while in Queensland it was the Sunshine Coast (+6.6%). While the pace of capital gains is generally slowing, growth in weekly rents has shown some upwards momentum, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. A year ago capital city rents were rising at the annual rate of just 0.8%.
RENTAL RETURNS: SYDNEY AND MELBOURNE UP
The past twelve months have seen this annual pace of rental growth ramp up to be 2.8% over the twelve months ending September. Sydney rental growth has increased from 2.2% a year ago to be up 4.8% and Melbourne rental growth is now tracking at 4.8%, up from 2.4% a year ago. The strongest rental conditions are in Hobart where weekly rents are now rising at 8.5% per annum. Rental conditions aren’t as strong across Brisbane (-0.1%), Perth (-3.7%) and Darwin (-2.2%) where rental rates continue to slip lower.
The improved growth in weekly rents against a backdrop of slowing capital gains has seen gross yields level out in Sydney at 3.1%, however, Melbourne yields reduced further over the month to reach a new record low of 2.91%. Darwin is once again recording the highest rental yields due to the fact that dwelling values are falling at a faster pace than rents, while Hobart isn’t far behind with gross yields reducing but remaining around the 5.0% mark.
Mr Lawless said, “The more subdued housing market conditions now playing out are likely the result of a combination of factors, namely, the clampdown on investment and interest only lending which is likely to have a knock-on effect for the Sydney housing market more than any other city.
“As we’ve seen from the latest housing finance data, investors still comprise slightly more than 50% of mortgage demand across New South Wales; a higher proportion than any other state.”
Investment mortgage rates are generally showing a 60 basis point premium over owner occupier rates, and premiums are higher for interest-only loans.
Mr Lawless said, “Slower rates of capital gain against a backdrop of low rental yields and tighter finance is likely to be creating a dent in investor sentiment and potentially encouraging investors to seek out markets with a more balanced yield profile coupled with better prospects for capital gain.”
While CoreLogic observations indicate that investor demand may trend lower due to higher mortgage rates and tighter credit policies, first home buyers are clearly increasing their presence across the housing market.
FIRST HOMEBUYER ACTIVITY SURGES HIGHER
Based on housing finance commitments data, first home buyer activity surged higher in New South Wales and Victoria as first-timer buyers took advantage of stamp duty concessions that went live on July 1st. Between June and July, the number of first home buyer commitments increased by 28% across New South Wales and 11% across Victoria.
First home buyer numbers are trending higher across other states where stamp duty rules were unchanged, suggesting that lower affordability barriers and an increasing appetite for owner occupier lending is fueling a broader rebound across the first time buyer segment. Population growth is another factor impacting housing demand.
Recently released demographic statistics from the ABS highlight a surge in overseas migration rates. The fastest rate of population growth is in Victoria at 2.4%, which is likely one of the key factors contributing to the resilience of Melbourne’s housing market to a broader slowdown in value growth. Net overseas migration surged higher across most of the states over the March quarter, reaching new record highs across both Victoria and New South Wales.
In closing, Mr Lawless said, “While CoreLogic anticipates that dwelling values will trend lower across Sydney and potentially Melbourne later this year or next, strong demand for housing, along with mortgage rates anticipated to remain low, will help to support a floor under housing prices going forward.”
