Australia’s coastal property market faces an increasingly significant long-term risk from rising sea levels and coastal flooding, with new research estimating the economic cost could reach at least $855 billion this century.
The Climate Council’s Rising Seas, Rising Bills report estimates coastal flooding could affect 267,000 properties and two million hectares of land across every state and the Northern Territory, including homes, farms and critical infrastructure.
For real estate agents operating in coastal markets, the findings put a sharper focus on an issue likely to become increasingly relevant to property, development decisions, insurance and conversations with buyers and sellers.
Queensland has the greatest number of properties identified as being at risk, at 93,157, followed by NSW with 71,210 and Western Australia with 51,366.
Western Australia faces the highest overall projected economic loss at $230.5 billion, followed by Queensland at $214.5 billion, Victoria at $167 billion and NSW at $150.7 billion. South Australia is estimated at $49.2 billion, the Northern Territory at $35.2 billion and Tasmania at $7.9 billion.
The Gold Coast stands out as the country’s most exposed urban area in the report, with projected economic losses of $84.4 billion.
The analysis identifies 32,490 properties and 6,985 hectares of land at risk in the Gold Coast area, with hotspots including parts of Jacobs Well, Paradise Point, Runaway Bay, Biggera Waters, Mermaid Beach and Palm Beach.
In NSW, northern coastal communities feature prominently. The report identifies 17,995 properties and 60,024 hectares of land in Northern NSW, with projected economic losses of $55.24 billion.
Areas highlighted include parts of Maclean, Yamba and Iluka, Ballina and Evans Head, Byron Bay’s Belongil Spit, Brunswick Heads, Kingscliff and Tweed Heads, and Sawtell.
Victoria presents a different picture to the rest of the country. The report finds it is the only state where projected economic losses are dominated by property rather than land, which it attributes to the concentration of valuable coastal real estate around Port Phillip Bay.
The state faces at least $167 billion in projected losses by 2100. East Melbourne is identified as the Victorian region facing the greatest economic loss, at $68.67 billion, with hotspots including parts of Koo Wee Rup, Braeside, Chelsea Heights and Carrum-Patterson Lakes.
The implications extend beyond the physical threat to property. The Climate Council said most homeowners would bear the costs when coastal flooding occurs because standard home insurance generally does not cover “actions of the sea”.
Climate scientist and report co-author Adjunct Professor Andrew Watkins said rising sea levels would make the effects of coastal flooding more frequent.
“The science shows that the most extreme sea levels we see in a typical year now, will occur monthly by 2090. That’s simply too often to repair the damage,” Professor Watkins said.
He said Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred in 2025 provided an example of the financial consequences coastal communities could face.
“When Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred hit in 2025, families watched their beaches disappear overnight. It cost the city of Gold Coast $35 million in beach repairs, and communities up and down the east coast are still recovering from the damage,” Professor Watkins said.
“This is how sea level rise packs a punch, by increasing the impacts of storm surges and coastal flooding that’s hitting communities harder, and more often.”
The report also raises questions about where new housing should be built, an issue with direct implications for planning, development and future housing supply in coastal markets.
Report co-author and University of Melbourne Professor Tom Kompas said avoiding further development in the most exposed areas would be the least costly option.
“Our least costly option is to avoid building in places where we know the risks are highest, and there’s a lot we can do to restore our coastlines and build in ways that reduce future risks,” Professor Kompas said.
“These are hard, but necessary decisions that communities are already facing.”
The scale and type of exposure varies considerably around the country.
In Queensland, the report estimates losses are divided almost evenly between land use, at $114 billion, and property, at $101 billion. In NSW, by contrast, projected land losses of $113.2 billion substantially outweigh the $37.5 billion attributed to property.
South Australia is projected to record $34.8 billion in land-use losses and $14.4 billion in property losses, while in Tasmania the respective figures are $6.8 billion and $1.1 billion.
For the real estate industry, the findings add another dimension to the changing risk profile of coastal property. While the projections extend to 2100, questions around flooding, insurance, planning and resilience are likely to become increasingly important considerations for agents, developers and property owners in exposed markets.
| State/Territory | Projected economic loss by 2100 | Key finding |
|---|---|---|
| Western Australia | $230.5bn | Australia’s highest projected loss. Farming is the largest affected land-use category, at 203,116.8ha. |
| Queensland | $214.5bn | Losses are almost evenly divided between land use ($114bn) and property ($101bn). |
| Victoria | $167bn | The only state where losses are dominated by property rather than land, reflecting valuable coastal real estate around Port Phillip Bay. |
| New South Wales | $150.7bn | Land losses ($113.2bn) significantly outweigh property losses ($37.5bn). |
| South Australia | $49.2bn | Land-use losses ($34.8bn) exceed property losses ($14.4bn). |
| Northern Territory | $35.2bn | Losses are based entirely on land use because comprehensive property data was unavailable. |
| Tasmania | $7.9bn | Land-use losses ($6.8bn) outweigh property losses ($1.1bn). |
| AUSTRALIA | $855bn | Rising seas and coastal flooding are projected to impose substantial economic costs this century. |