If you’ve been struggling to find townhouse or terrace listings for buyers in your inner-ring market, the numbers finally back up what you’ve been seeing on the ground.
A new research tool called the Australian Zoning Atlas (zoning.org.au) has launched, billed as the first nationwide map to classify and compare the restrictiveness of residential planning controls across every Australian capital on a like-for-like basis.
Atlas is produced by YIMBY Melbourne, an advocacy group that campaigns for planning reform and increased housing density, so readers weighing its policy prescriptions should factor that affiliation into how they interpret the findings.
The headline takeaway for agents pitching in urban markets is that 76% of residential land within 20km of the eight capital city centres is “highly restricted”, rising to an average of 81% when calculated on a per-city basis.
That amounts to more than 1,480 square kilometres of well-located, already-serviced land where planning rules effectively rule out townhouses, terraces and small apartment buildings.
A block gets tagged as highly restricted if it carries a two-storey height limit (roughly 8.5 metres or less), an explicit low-density zoning, a detached-house-only mandate, or a heritage control.
Because a single parcel can carry more than one of these controls, the total reflects the combined footprint rather than the sum of the four measures.
When looking at residential land within 20km of each CBD classed as highly restricted, Hobart leads at 97%, followed by Adelaide at 92%, Darwin at 88%, Perth at 87%, Brisbane at 86%, Sydney at 81%, Canberra at 74%, and Melbourne at 45%.
Hobart is the most restricted capital, while Adelaide, Darwin, Perth, Brisbane and Sydney all sit above 80%.
Canberra is the least restricted mainland capital following its recent Missing Middle reforms, while Melbourne is the outlier nationally – the only capital where most inner residential land isn’t locked to the lowest densities.
Report co-author Jonathan O’Brien estimates that removing the most restrictive controls and permitting three-storey townhouses across residential land could accommodate around nine million additional homes in Australia’s capitals over time, net of what could already be built under current rules.
As an important caveat for client conversations, this figure is a modelled estimate rather than a measured outcome, based on applying assumed townhouse-scale yields to the land currently classified as highly restricted; the report’s full methodology, including its assumptions and data sources, is set out at zoning.org.au for readers who want to test its robustness.
The report finds the impact would be greatest in the smaller, fast-growing capitals, with Perth and Brisbane each estimated to be able to accommodate more than two million additional townhouse-scale homes.
Mr O’Brien argues the Federal Government should consider developing a national density zoning framework so states apply consistent rules.
He also pushed back on the idea that heritage protection and increased density are incompatible.
“You can keep iconic buildings and simultaneously build new buildings next to them or around them or down the street.”
For agents, the Atlas offers more than a talking point – it’s a comparative benchmark that can shape how you frame conversations with vendors and buyers in markets where medium-density reform is being debated.
In tight, heavily restricted markets such as Hobart, Adelaide and Perth, agents may want to flag to vendors that townhouse and terrace stock could remain scarce relative to demand unless zoning settings change – a factor that may support the case for holding or pricing existing medium-density stock accordingly.
In Melbourne, by contrast, agents should expect greater potential for future medium-density supply to come online over time, given its comparatively permissive zoning, which may be a relevant factor in longer-term stock and pricing conversations with investors.
How your capital city ranks
Here is the percentage of residential land within 20km of each CBD classed as highly restricted:
- Hobart – 97%
- Adelaide – 92%
- Darwin – 88%
- Perth – 87%
- Brisbane – 86%
- Sydney – 81%
- Canberra – 74%
- Melbourne – 45%