Our housing market has split along clear supply-and-demand lines since the start of 2020, with Western Australia (WA) and Queensland (QLD) emerging as the strongest performers.
This is amid a shortfall in new housing construction, according to new analysis from Cotality.
The research, released in its April Housing Chart Pack, shows home values in both states have more than doubled since early 2020, driven by population growth materially outpacing dwelling completions.
Between Q1 2020 and Q3 2025, QLD accounted for more than 25% of Australia’s population growth but less than 20% of national dwelling completions. WA recorded nearly 17% of population growth over the same period, compared with around 10% of completions.
Cotality’s Head of Research Gerard Burg said the imbalance has been a key driver of price pressure in these markets.
“In WA and QLD, the share of dwelling completions fell well behind the share of population growth, with these states seeing home values more than double since 2020,” Mr Burg said.
He also noted Queensland’s ongoing appeal to interstate migrants, although momentum may be easing.
“QLD accounted for over 25% of the total increase in Australia’s population over this period, but less than 20% of the dwellings completed were located in QLD,” he said.
At the other end of the spectrum, Victoria delivered around one-third (33%) of national dwelling completions, outpacing its share of population growth, supported by policy settings and a strong construction pipeline.
South Australia was identified as a notable outlier, with home values rising more than 90% over five years despite dwelling completions broadly tracking population growth.
Cotality said the diverging outcomes highlight how supply constraints translate into market pressure, particularly in Perth and Brisbane, where limited new housing relative to demand has created highly competitive conditions.
“When we see a supply-demand imbalance such as those in Perth or Brisbane, we wind up with a large pool of buyers competing for a small pool of dwellings,” Mr Burg said. “This creates a seller’s market and can rapidly drive up home values.”
Nationally, Australia’s residential real estate market reached $12.6 trillion in March, with dwelling values rising 2.1% over the quarter and 9.9% annually – the fastest annual pace since June 2022.
Cotality estimates around 559,457 sales have been recorded in 2026 year-to-date, 1.9% lower than a year earlier but 5.6% above the five-year average.
Median time on market has tightened to 30 days nationally, with Perth the fastest capital city at nine days, while Darwin and Canberra remain the slowest.
Rental conditions remain extremely tight, with national vacancy rates at 1.6% and gross yields at 3.57%, led by Darwin at 6.0% and Sydney at 3.1%.