Ray White Group Chief Economist, Nerida Conisbee, said while the impact won’t match the intensity of previous mining booms, the scale and timing of the investment will significantly affect Perth’s housing outlook.
“More than $20 billion will flow into WA over the next decade through upgrades to the Henderson shipbuilding precinct and HMAS Stirling, supported by the creation of over 10,000 construction and shipbuilding jobs and an additional 3,000 roles linked to the submarine base,” Ms Conisbee said.
She said that Perth’s housing market is already under considerable strain after years of strong price growth and tight rental conditions.
“Perth’s housing market is already stretched. There has been a multi-year run of strong price growth alongside some of the tightest rental conditions in the country,” she said.
“Rents have risen sharply, vacancy rates remain historically low, and construction activity is lagging well behind population growth.”
Unlike previous mining booms that affected the entire metropolitan area, Ms Conisbee explained that AUKUS-related housing demand will be more concentrated.
“Demand will cluster around Rockingham, Kwinana, Cockburn and Fremantle, areas already under pressure and with limited short-term supply flexibility,” she said.
“This localised effect means the impact may feel large on the ground, even if the overall magnitude is smaller than past resources cycles.”
The timing and nature of the AUKUS-driven growth also differs from historical patterns according to Ms Conisbee.
“Mining booms tended to coincide with sharp accelerations in both population growth and investor activity,” she said.
“By contrast, AUKUS growth will be gradual and staged, building over several years. This reduces the likelihood of a sudden price surge but creates a steady, persistent pull on housing that becomes more noticeable as supply struggles to keep pace.”
Ms Conisbee highlighted that existing construction constraints will compound the issue.
“Construction pipelines remain thin, with fewer projects entering the system and costs still elevated. This leaves Perth with limited capacity to increase supply just as demand begins to rise,” she said.
While not creating a mining-style boom, the AUKUS agreement will reinforce existing market pressures rather than create entirely new ones, Ms Conisbee concluded.
“For Perth, the key story remains the same: demand continues to rise, supply continues to struggle, and prices continue to respond accordingly,” she said.
“AUKUS won’t redefine the market, but it will nudge it further along the same trajectory – steadily, structurally and for many years to come.”
