Domain’s Chief of Research and Economics, Dr Nicola Powell, has revealed that spring consistently outperforms other seasons across key market metrics, with this year’s activity expected to be further amplified by recent interest rate cuts.
“Spring is the housing market’s defining season,” Dr Powell said.
“Each year, activity lifts in a remarkably consistent pattern: listings rise, auctions intensify, and transactions increase
“These seasonal forces shape how the property market closes out the year.”
According to Dr Powell, a decade of data shows four clear patterns that emerge during spring, with the first being a predictable surge in property listings.
“Over the past decade, the number of homes for sale has risen every year between winter and spring, averaging a 5.9 per cent increase,” she said.
“This seasonal surge reliably resets market momentum before easing back in summer, when stock levels typically fall by around 7.1 per cent.”
The research indicates that sales volumes respond accordingly, with national transactions averaging 8.4 per cent higher in spring than winter, making it the busiest season for property sales despite autumn carrying marginally more total listings.
Dr Powell said that auction activity increases this trend significantly.
“Spring produces the heaviest auction calendar, with volumes 31.1 per cent higher than winter and nearly 65 per cent above summer,” she said.
“Yet clearance rates do not peak in this season. Autumn retains the highest success rate – 61.5 per cent versus spring’s 60.2 per cent.”
Property prices also typically strengthen during spring, with the winter-to-spring price bump averaging 2.6 per cent over the past decade, compared to only 0.4 per cent from autumn to winter.
“Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart lead the spring price gains with an average 3 per cent lift, while most other capitals sit between 2-3 per cent,” Dr Powell said.
“This seasonal premium reflects both the natural advantages of presentation in spring and the strategic timing of higher-quality stock.”
The 2025 spring market opens against a backdrop of shifting conditions, with three interest rate cuts already delivered this year and more expected to come.
Dr Powell said clearance rates have proven remarkably robust and continue improving, with July marking the third-highest national result for this month in the past decade.
“Sydney and Melbourne – which account for 70 per cent of national auctions – drive this strength. The winter auction clearance rates for these cities are among the highest over the last 10 years, at 69.1 per cent and 68 per cent respectively,” she said.
On the price front, momentum is building significantly. Between January and July 2025, the combined capital median house price rose 9.2 per cent, marking the third-highest January-to-July growth rate in the past decade.
“This strong price performance comes despite higher inventory levels at the start of the year, suggesting robust underlying demand is supporting premium pricing,” Dr Powell said.
Looking ahead, Dr Powell believes Spring 2025 could mark a decisive turning point for market momentum.
“The question is whether spring’s proven seasonal strength will be amplified by rate relief. Strong clearance rates, rising prices and elevated supply suggest conditions are aligning for an unusually powerful rebound,” she said.
“If the traditional influx of listings meets reinvigorated demand, Spring 2025 could mark a decisive turning point for market momentum heading into the new year.”
