For decades, auction clearance rates have been treated as the GOAT, “the Greatest of All Time” when it comes to measuring the pulse of Australia’s property market.
Weekend results are published like an ASX 200 ticker, with buyers, sellers, and agents using them to gauge momentum, sentiment, and price direction.
But in a market that’s evolving rapidly, we have to ask: Are clearance rates still the best indicator of what’s really happening out there?
Are they delivering meaningful insights or do they now paint an incomplete picture?
What Do Auction Clearance Rates Really Tell Us?
Auction clearance rates reflect the percentage of homes listed for auction that sell either under the hammer or shortly after.
It’s a simple, headline grabbing metric. But in today’s fragmented landscape of diverse sales strategies, how representative is it, really?
Here’s the thing, clearance rates only include auctions that actually ran on the day.
They don’t count properties that sold prior (often at a premium) or those that were withdrawn altogether.
Depending on the market, the number of pre-auction sales or withdrawals can be significantly higher or lower than the on-the-day results.
Even more critically, what proportion of properties even go to auction? In many regional or outer suburban markets, auctions make up only a small fraction of sales.
Even in major metro areas, auctions account for less than 50% of total transactions.
That’s why many in the industry argue that days on market (DOM) is a far better reflection of true market confidence and it applies across all sale types.
Private treaty DOM in a hot market might be under 10 days. In a slower one, it could push beyond 100. None of that volatility is captured in auction clearance rates.
So if we’re measuring only part of the market, and leaving out key signals like pre auction premiums or DOM blowouts, can we still consider clearance rates the GOAT of the market barometer?
Are Auctions Still the Preferred Path?
In some cities, yes. But across broader Australia, more sellers are choosing private treaty, expressions of interest, or off-market deals (I won’t digress into my thoughts on off-market here, but perhaps some other day).
In those instances, clearance rates simply don’t capture the action.
Should we still rely so heavily on a figure that excludes so many transactions?
What About Pre Auction and Post Auction Sales?
Some of the strongest results aren’t happening under the hammer at all.
High-quality homes are being snapped up before auction, often at a significant premium.
Likewise, passed-in properties can sell within days through post-auction negotiation to buyers who might pay more but require conditions.
Shouldn’t these outcomes be part of the conversation too?
If anything, they might tell us more about buyer urgency and perceived value than the clearance rates themselves.
Do Clearance Rates Hide Market Strategy?
In quieter periods, agents might avoid auctions altogether for listings that seem less likely to attract competitive bidding.
This creates a self-filtering effect, only strong contenders may go to auction, keeping clearance rates deceptively high.
But does this reflect true market confidence, or just strategic curation?
Has Buyer Behaviour Outpaced the Metric?
Today’s buyers are better informed, more cautious, and more likely to negotiate privately or submit pre-auction offers.
The idea that a Saturday sale is the ultimate gauge of market heat feels increasingly one-dimensional.
Is It a Media Favourite or a Market Truth?
Weekly clearance stats are easy to digest and report, but can they still carry the weight of market insight?
High clearance rates might mask falling prices, while low rates could create unnecessary panic even in markets with strong underlying demand.
Can Low Clearance Rates Scare Off the Very People Who Need Auctions the Most?
A poor clearance rate weekend can spook the market. Sellers watching the headlines may assume auctions are “failing” and steer toward private treaty or off-market routes.
But here’s the catch: in many cases, an auction might have been the ideal method for their property, especially if it’s unique, tightly held, or located in a high demand pocket.
Fear driven by a single weekend’s data can cause owners to bypass the competitive tension and urgency that only auctions can create.
So the question is: are we letting a narrow metric talk us out of strategies that actually work?
Should We Broaden the Lens Significantly?
Maybe it’s time to ask: What should we really be tracking?
- Pre and Post Auction Premiums: Are the great results happening outside the auction event as well?
- Days on Market: How quickly are homes selling, regardless of the method?
- Buyer Sentiment & Lending Conditions: Are approvals rising or falling? What’s happening with serviceability?
- Discounting and Pricing Trends: Are vendors holding firm, or adjusting expectations?
- Listing Volumes and Turnover: How active is the market in terms of choice and churn?
So… Is the GOAT Still in Form?
Perhaps auction clearance rates are no longer the all encompassing market compass they once were.
That doesn’t mean they’re irrelevant, but maybe it’s time they shared the spotlight with other, more well rounded indicators.
In an era where the property market is more complex than ever, the real question becomes: Are we still measuring the right things?
